2025年7月11日锂市场：旺季博弈升温，短期价格企稳

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年7月11日锂市场：旺季博弈升温，短期价格企稳

2025-07-11 17:53:55 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：杨浩

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一、价格表现：全产业链暂稳，博弈氛围浓厚

当日锂矿（锂辉石、锂云母精矿等）、锂化合物（碳酸锂、氢氧化锂、六氟磷酸锂等）及金属锂价格均维持前一日水平。

这一表现折射出短期供需弱平衡：上游矿企因前期价格下行已部分去库，暂无进一步调价动力；中游冶炼企业受成本与下游刚需支撑，选择观望；下游电池厂因终端库存高企（新能源车渠道库存达68天），采购节奏谨慎，市场成交以长协或刚需为主，现货价格暂陷僵持。

二、供需结构：过剩压力未消，旺季预期存疑

（一）供应端：全球增量持续释放

海外层面，非洲锂矿、南美盐湖产能加速落地（如非洲锂辉石精矿放量），叠加国内江西锂云母矿企受环保整治影响有限（短期供应稳定），全球锂资源供应过剩格局延续。数据显示，2025年全球锂矿供应同比增长21%，三季度国内碳酸锂月度产量或突破8万吨，进一步加剧市场宽松预期。

（二）需求端：终端复苏疲软，政策托底有限

新能源汽车是锂需求核心（占比超70%），但当前终端“去库存”周期未结束：6月新能源车渠道库存升至68天（远超45天警戒线），电池企业采购意愿低迷，以消耗既有库存为主。虽有“以旧换新”政策托底，但短期难改需求颓势；储能领域受欧盟反规避调查、强制配储政策取消影响，出口型企业承压，新兴市场光伏配储需求释放缓慢，进一步抑制锂消费增长。

三、市场预期：震荡寻底为主

当前锂价已逼近部分高成本产能“盈亏线”（如矿石提锂成本约5-7万元/吨），行业出清加速（澳洲矿山减产、国内小矿关停），但库存高企与需求疲软仍主导短期走势。

市场博弈焦点集中于旺季需求兑现：三季度为新能源车传统销售旺季，若“以旧换新”带动终端销量回升，或阶段性提振锂价；反之，库存压力将继续压制价格。

短期而言，过剩压力、库存高企仍主导行情，价格或在“成本支撑-需求疲软”区间震荡（碳酸锂或运行于5-7万元/吨）；中长期需关注产能出清进度与终端需求复苏强度——若行业过剩产能加速退出，叠加新能源车、储能需求超预期增长，锂价有望逐步企稳回升，否则将延续“磨底”周期。

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2025年7月11日锂市场：旺季博弈升温，短期价格企稳

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