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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年7月15日锂市场：需求端淡季不淡，碳酸锂价格走强

2025-07-15 17:11:27 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：杨浩

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一、价格表现

矿端表现持稳，电池级材料表现较强。今日锂辉石、锂云母、金属锂等品种价格皆与前日持平。

碳酸锂、氢氧化锂价格出现不同程度上涨。

尽管6-8月（夏季高温抑制购车意愿）为传统销售低谷，但2025年以来，新能源车销售淡旺季特征减弱，甚至出现“淡季不淡、旺季更旺”的迹象。因此，下游采购商采购意愿增强，备货积极，需求景气带动价格有所回升。

二、供需结构

（一）供应端

当前，锂行业供需格局过剩明显，同时中期产能释放压力仍大。短期层面，机构预计2025年全球锂供给将增加27.7万吨LCE至166.8万吨LCE，增幅达20%，澳矿、非洲矿、南美盐湖新增产能释放构成主要增量；展望中期，市场机构预计2025-2027年全球总供给为166.8/201.0/225.6万吨，增幅为20%/20%/12%。

短期预期差取决于主要厂商的停复产。2025年初，头部企业减停产带动锂价反弹，但随后复产消息冲击下，碳酸锂价格继续创下新低，成本支撑被击穿，价格破位下跌，可见停复产节奏对短期价格的主导作用。

碳酸锂库存达历史高位。根据相关数据，截至2025年4月底，国内冶炼厂库存达5.1万吨，下游碳酸锂库存4.5万吨，合计9.6万吨，处于相对库存高位。

（二）需求端

新能源车层面，景气度高，需求释放超预期。2025年1-4月尽管处于传统的行业相对淡季，但是国内新能源车市场热度依旧不减，2025M1-M4国内新能源车累计销量429.9万辆，同比+46.3%，远超市场预期；出口方面，2025M1-M4国内新能源车累计出口63.9万辆，同比+51.8%，远高于2024年出口增速；全球方面，2025M1-M4全球新能源车累计销量573.4万辆，同比+35.5%，销量远超预期。

储能层面，仍旧强势增长中。根据储能与电力市场统计，2025M1-M4国内储能中标容量累计为132.9GWh，同比+219.1%。

三、市场预期

当前锂价已逼近部分高成本产能“盈亏线”，需求端亦超预期，行业出清加速（澳洲矿山减产、国内小矿关停），但库存高企仍是隐忧。

市场博弈焦点集中于旺季需求兑现：三季度为新能源车传统销售旺季，若“以旧换新”带动终端销量回升，或阶段性提振锂价；反之，库存压力将继续压制价格。

短期而言，过剩压力、库存高企仍主导行情，价格或在“成本支撑-需求疲软”区间震荡（碳酸锂或运行于5-7万元/吨）；中长期需关注产能出清进度与终端需求复苏强度——若行业过剩产能加速退出，叠加新能源车、储能需求超预期增长，锂价有望逐步企稳回升，否则将延续“磨底”周期。

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