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2025年7月31日国内电解铜市场日报

2025-07-31 17:59:25 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、市场整体概况

今日（2025年7月31日），国内电解铜市场全线下跌，市场情绪持续疲软。据监测的9个主流城市数据显示，电解铜均价约为79233元/吨，较昨日下跌580元/吨（跌幅约0.73%）。各城市价格均呈现不同程度的回落，跌幅区间为570-610元/吨。

二、区域价格与涨跌分析

今日各城市电解铜价格分化不大，整体处于79105-79385元/吨区间。其中，武汉以79385元/吨居最高价，主要得益于华中地区制造业需求相对稳定，但仍难掩整体下跌趋势；上海紧随其后，以79340元/吨为次高位，作为全国最大的铜贸易集散地，其价格受国际铜价影响最直接，今日亦跟随国际铜价下跌；济南则以79105元/吨成为最低价，因华北地区下游需求疲软（如家电、汽车行业采购减少），价格承压最明显。具体价格从高到低排序为：武汉（79385）> 上海（79340）> 重庆（79325）> 北京（79280）> 西安（79230）> 沈阳（79200）> 天津（79120）> 广州（79115）> 济南（79105）。今日所有监测城市均出现下跌，跌幅分化明显：跌幅Top3为广州（-610元/吨）、重庆（-590元/吨）、西安（-580元/吨）；济南、天津、北京、上海均为-575元/吨的中间跌幅；武汉、沈阳跌幅最小，均为-570元/吨。注：广州作为华南地区重要的铜消费城市，今日跌幅居首，主要因当地家电企业（如格力、美的）近期减产，铜采购量骤降，导致价格下跌幅度扩大。

三、下跌原因深度解析

今日电解铜价格下跌的核心驱动因素可归纳为“国际传导+国内供需失衡”两大逻辑。具体来看，国际铜价大幅拖累是直接诱因——今日LME铜价盘中下跌2.1%（报7850美元/吨），COMEX铜价下跌1.9%（报3.55美元/磅），主要因美元指数走强（突破106关口）降低了以美元计价的铜资产吸引力，叠加市场对全球经济增速放缓的担忧（如欧元区PMI创3年新低、中国房地产投资增速下滑），铜的“工业金属属性”承压，投机需求加速撤离。

另一方面，国内供需失衡进一步加剧了下跌压力：需求端，下游核心行业（房地产、家电、汽车）持续萎缩，国家统计局数据显示，6月房地产开发投资增速同比下降5.2%（创年内新低），家电（空调、冰箱）产量同比下降3.1%，汽车产量同比下降2.8%，这些占铜需求60%以上的领域采购量骤减，导致市场需求严重不足；供应端，国内冶炼厂产量保持稳定增长，中国有色金属工业协会预计7月电解铜产量为95万吨（同比增长2.1%），主要因云南、江西等地新投产项目（如云南铜业20万吨/年项目）逐步满负荷运行，市场供应持续增加；库存端，上海期货交易所（SHFE）铜库存近期持续累积，7月31日报12.5万吨（较上周增加5%），清晰反映出“供过于求”的市场格局。

此外，政策与资金因素也抑制了价格反弹：近期国内货币政策虽保持稳健，但资金成本（如1年期LPR）仍处于高位，铜贸易商融资成本上升，投机性采购大幅减少；同时，监管层对“大宗商品炒作”的打击（如严查期货市场违规交易），导致市场流动性收缩，进一步加剧了价格下跌压力。

四、市场展望与操作建议

短期（1-2周）来看，电解铜市场或维持弱势震荡格局，核心关注点在于国际铜价走势与国内需求变化。利空方面，国际铜价仍受美元走强压制，而国内下游需求（如房地产、家电行业）短期内难有明显改善，将持续对价格形成拖累；潜在利好则在于，若国内出台基建投资刺激政策（如增加铁路、公路建设支出），有望拉动铜需求，缓解下跌压力。需密切跟踪的关键指标包括：LME铜价能否守住7800美元/吨关口、SHFE铜库存是否继续累积，以及8月上旬公布的房地产投资数据，这些将直接影响短期市场情绪与价格走向。

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2025年7月31日国内电解铜市场日报

一、市场整体概况

二、区域价格与涨跌分析

三、下跌原因深度解析

四、市场展望与操作建议

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