基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年8月4日电解铜市场日报

2025-08-04 17:51:58 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、市场概况

今日国内电解铜市场呈现多数城市上涨、少数城市小幅下跌的震荡偏强态势。其中，华北、华东、西南地区涨幅居前，华南地区（广州）因地区性供需矛盾小幅回落，整体价格区间维持在78725-79055元/吨。

二、价格走势（单位：元/吨）

三、影响因素分析

1. 宏观面：稳增长政策与国际环境支撑

国内政策：近期工信部《铜产业高质量发展实施方案》强调“严控冶炼产能扩张”，叠加基建投资（如电网、铁路）持续加码，下游铜需求逐步改善，支撑铜价高位运行。
国际环境：美元指数今日小幅下跌（跌破100关口），以美元计价的LME铜价上涨1.2%（至9750美元/吨），带动国内铜价跟随走强。

2. 基本面：供需紧平衡与库存下降

供应端：国内冶炼企业因“反内卷”政策限制，产能释放趋缓，市场供应偏紧。
需求端：下游行业（如电网、家电）订单增加，其中南网、国网近期铜采购量环比增长15%，支撑铜价上涨。
库存：国内社会库存今日降至11.2万吨（环比减少0.3万吨），进一步强化供需紧平衡格局。

3. 地区性因素：广州下跌的核心原因

广州作为华南铜消费重镇，今日价格下跌40元/吨，主要因当地电解铜库存较上周增加（至2.1万吨），且下游家电企业（如空调、冰箱）因传统淡季需求疲软，采购量减少，导致价格承压。

四、后市展望

1. 短期

支撑位：77200元/吨（国内政策底+冶炼成本线）。
压力位：79500元/吨（国际铜价高位+下游需求顶）。
逻辑：国内稳增长政策持续释放，下游需求逐步改善，库存下降，支撑铜价震荡偏强；但需关注8月非农数据（若就业韧性超预期，可能推迟美联储降息，压制铜价）。

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