2025年8月13日中国电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年8月13日中国电解铜市场日报

2025-08-13 17:28:37 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、今日市场概览

2025年8月13日，中国电解铜市场延续下跌态势，主要城市价格普遍回落，跌幅在235-410元/吨之间。其中，重庆以79360元/吨的价格领跌（下跌410元/吨），上海（79415元/吨，下跌365元/吨）、北京（79380元/吨，下跌310元/吨）、天津（79220元/吨，下跌310元/吨）等城市跌幅均超300元/吨；西安价格持平于79650元/吨，为当日唯一未下跌的主要城市。

二、价格下跌核心原因分析

价格下跌的核心驱动因素为需求端疲软与宏观环境压制，叠加供应端暂未出现实质性短缺。下游传统行业需求持续乏力：1-7月全国房地产投资增速同比下滑5.2%，房屋新开工面积下降8.1%，导致电缆、建筑用铜需求大幅减少；7月空调、冰箱产量同比分别下降3.5%、2.8%，家电企业铜库存高位，暂未启动新采购；新能源行业（光伏、电动车）虽保持增长，但占比仅约15%，不足以对冲传统需求下滑。宏观方面，美元指数今日升至106.5的近三个月新高，以美元计价的LME铜价下跌1.2%至9050美元/吨，带动国内进口铜成本下降（进口铜完税价约78800元/吨），压制国内现货价格；同时，国内流动性边际收紧（7月M2增速回落至8.9%），市场资金面趋紧，大宗商品投机需求减少。供应端方面，虽南美铜矿（埃斯孔迪达、Collahuasi）6月合计减产6.33万吨，但铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）仍维持在28美元/吨（7月均价），说明原料供应尚未出现实质性短缺；此外，国内电解铜产能过剩（2025年产能约1200万吨，产量约1050万吨），短期内供应充足，叠加需求疲软，推动价格下跌。

三、市场动态与交易情绪

市场交易情绪低迷，贸易商为促进出货，部分下调报价吸引下游采购，但下游企业（如电缆厂、家电厂）多采取“按需采购”策略，因需求疲软，铜库存可维持1-2个月生产，暂不考虑批量采购，导致市场成交量较昨日减少约15%。期货市场方面，沪铜主力合约（2510）今日下跌380元/吨至79200元/吨，持仓量减少1.2万手，显示多头离场，短期仍有下行压力。

四、后续展望：短期弱势，长期看需求修复

短期（1-2周）来看，电解铜价格仍将维持弱势震荡格局。需求端，传统行业需求无明显改善，新能源需求难以快速提升，供需矛盾仍存；宏观端，美元指数仍有上涨空间（美联储9月加息预期升温），LME铜价或继续压制国内价格；不过，需警惕南美铜矿减产的滞后效应（约1-2个月），9月后电解铜原料或出现短缺，为价格提供一定支撑。长期（3-6个月）需关注需求修复与政策刺激：若后续出台房地产刺激政策（如放松限购、降低房贷利率）或新能源行业补贴加码，传统需求与新兴需求共振，铜价有望反弹；同时，南美铜矿减产（埃斯孔迪达扩产计划延迟）、刚果（金）铜精矿运输瓶颈（港口拥堵）等因素，将逐步加剧原料短缺，支撑铜价长期走强。

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2025年8月13日中国电解铜市场日报

一、今日市场概览

二、价格下跌核心原因分析

三、市场动态与交易情绪

四、后续展望：短期弱势，长期看需求修复

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