2025年2月14日铜日报：COMEX 期铜再创新高，多因素驱动涨势

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年2月14日铜日报：COMEX 期铜再创新高，多因素驱动涨势

2025-02-14 09:14:03 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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周四，芝加哥商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货市场再度活跃，价格连续第二个交易日攀升，成功创下 8 个多月以来的最高价，引发市场广泛关注。

当日收盘时，铜期货价格涨幅明显，上涨幅度在 7.1 美分到 7.7 美分之间。其中，最受瞩目的 2025 年 3 月期铜表现强劲，报收于 4.778 美元 / 磅，较前一交易日上涨 7.35 美分，涨幅达 1.56% ，这一价格水平为 2024 年 5 月 29 日以来的最高点。3 月期铜当天的交易区间波动较大，在 4.6835 美元至 4.7905 美元之间。

铜价此次上涨，美元汇率下跌起到了重要的支撑作用。周四，ICE 美元指数报 107.216 点，相比周三下跌了 0.56%。从本周表现来看，美元指数已累计下跌 0.66%，今年以来更是下跌了 1.00%。美元的贬值使得以美元定价的铜对于持有其他货币的买家而言，性价比大幅提升，从而吸引了更多的市场需求，推动铜价上涨。基金借助铜价与美元之间的负相关关系，依据计算机模型发出的信号频繁进行买卖操作，进一步加剧了市场的波动。

此外，铜精矿市场的供应紧张态势也为铜价上涨提供了助力。根据澳新银行的一份研报显示，铜精矿加工费用持续下降，这一现象表明精矿供应短缺问题愈发严重。近期，铜精矿加工费用（TC/RC）甚至创下了历史新低，周三时仅为每吨负 12.50 美元以及每磅负 1.25 美分，而在一年前，该数据约为每吨正 20 美元。这种显著的变化极大地影响了市场参与者的预期，进而提振了铜价走势。

从更长远的时间维度来看，COMEX 期铜（近期合约）本月以来涨幅已达 11.66%，今年以来更是累计上涨 18.66%。在 2024 年，期铜全年涨幅为 3.50%，这是自 2021 年以来的最大年度涨幅，且实现了连续第二年上涨，主要原因是市场对矿山供应难以满足需求增长的担忧。回顾过去 9 年，期铜价格有 7 年处于上涨状态。

自 2023 年底起，主要矿山供应中断的情况加剧了铜矿石供应的紧张局面。随着全球制造业逐步复苏，加之美联储有转向货币宽松政策的趋势，对于在能源转型中至关重要的铜金属而言，其前景愈发向好。从中长期视角分析，全球经济的绿色转型以及电气化进程，将极大地刺激这种在电力和建筑行业应用广泛的金属的额外需求。然而，铜矿行业却面临着投资不足以及生产中断等问题，这也为未来铜价走势增添了更多不确定性。

在国内市场方面，周四上海期货交易所的 3 月期铜合约收盘上涨 770 元，报收于 77,560 元 / 吨；上海国际能源交易中心（INE）的 3 月保税铜期货同样收高 770 元，报价为每吨 69,000 元。

在交易数据方面，周四 COMEX 期铜基准合约的成交量为 73,820 手，相比上一交易日的 73,114 手略有增加；空盘量为 79,915 手，而上一交易日为 86,276 手，空盘量的变化也反映出市场参与者的持仓结构有所调整。

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2025年2月14日铜日报：COMEX 期铜再创新高，多因素驱动涨势

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