基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年9月5日电解铜市场日报

2025-09-05 17:35:13 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、今日价格走势概述

9月5日，中国主要城市电解铜价格全线下跌，跌幅在270-295元/吨之间。其中，北京（79850元/吨，-290元/吨）、济南（79675元/吨，-295元/吨）、天津（79690元/吨，-290元/吨）跌幅居前；西安（79760元/吨，-270元/吨）、广州（79810元/吨，-270元/吨）、上海（79845元/吨，-275元/吨）等城市跌幅相对温和。整体价格较上一交易日（9月4日）明显回落，市场情绪转弱。

二、下跌原因深度分析

核心触发因素为宏观扰动——美联储理事鲍曼9月5日发表鹰派讲话，称通胀仍高于2%目标、劳动力市场紧张，可能需进一步加息，导致市场对美联储9月降息的预期从昨日85%骤降至68%；美元指数受此推动大幅走强（今日14:00报103.6，+0.6%，创近两周新高），因铜价以美元计价，国际铜价（LME铜价今日下跌1.3%至8890美元/吨）受压制，国内铜价同步下跌。

供应端宽松压力凸显：国内电解铜产量持续释放，8月产量达118.2万吨（环比+1.5%，7月为116.4万吨），主因云南、江西等大型冶炼厂检修结束，9月预计产量将增至119.5万吨；同时，近期沪伦比价走强（今日报7.85，处于“进口盈利”区间），推动国内企业增加进口，8月电解铜进口量达18.6万吨（环比+22%），进一步加剧国内供应压力。

需求端“金九”旺季启动不及预期：尽管进入传统旺季，但终端需求恢复缓慢：家电行业中，8月空调产量1850万台（环比+5%但同比-8%），主因地产销售疲软（7月地产销售额同比-12%）导致终端需求不足；地产行业7月竣工面积同比-15%，铜材（如电线电缆）采购量未达旺季预期；铜杆开工率今日回落至76%（昨日为78%），显示终端企业采购积极性不高，铜价下跌进一步抑制了“买涨不买跌”的投机需求。

库存累库强化过剩预期：供应宽松与需求疲软叠加，国内电解铜社会库存持续增加，9月5日达13.2万吨（较昨日+2000吨，8月31日为12.7万吨），创近一个月新高，进一步推动铜价下跌。

三、后市展望：短期震荡偏弱，中长期仍受基本面支撑

短期（1-2周）铜价或延续震荡偏弱格局：

宏观不确定性压制情绪（重点关注9月8日美联储主席鲍威尔讲话，若延续鹰派立场，降息预期或进一步降温）；

供应压力持续（国内电解铜9月产量预计增至119.5万吨，进口量环比+22%至18.6万吨，库存累库至13.2万吨）；

需求恢复缓慢（“金九”旺季启动不及预期，铜杆开工率降至76%，地产竣工同比-15%拖累铜材采购）。

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