2025年2月14日铝日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年2月14日铝日报

2025-02-17 08:48:49 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、今日铝价表现

2 月 14 日，铝价呈现出上扬态势，最新铝价达 20600 元 / 吨，相比之前上涨了 90 元 / 吨。当前宏观环境中，多空因素相互交织。国内大力提振消费，为铝价提供了一定支撑；然而海外贸易壁垒有所加码，尽管目前国内企业与资金情绪对此反应一般，但全球铝市场短期内仍会因政策因素面临结构性调整，欧美贸易政策走向以及主要消费市场的需求变化需持续关注。

二、基本面分析

供应端：电解铝供应端复产压力再度显现，2 月份国内电解铝运行产能有缓慢上升的预期。不过，北方部分氧化铝厂传出检修消息，短期内可能会对氧化铝供应量产生一定影响，本周氧化铝周度开工率小幅下降了 0.33 个百分点。
成本端：氧化铝现货均价持续下滑，带动电解铝成本不断下降，成本端的支撑力度持续减弱。受氧化铝现货价格大幅下跌影响，氧化铝厂对高价铝土矿的接受度大幅降低，铝土矿持货方报价也有所下降，进口铝土矿价格下跌，氧化铝生产成本或有所下移，但目前北方氧化铝现货成交价格低于生产的理论边际成本。
需求端：本周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率显著回升，环比节前一周上涨 5.7 个百分点，达到 56.8%，主要原因是春节假期后企业复产拉动，但各板块复苏情况存在差异。随着光伏需求增加以及终端全面复工复产，在供给端增量有限的情况下，预计铝价短期将维持高位震荡。

三、市场细分领域动态

原铝市场：昨日早盘沪铝当月合约重心震荡运行，市场交易较为活跃，部分贸易商反馈下游复工后采购量有所回升。华东地区交易持续向好，现货贴水保持稳定。A00 铝对沪铝 2502 合约贴水 30 元 / 吨，与上一交易日持平，A00 铝锭价格为 20510 元 / 吨，较上一交易日下跌 30 元 / 吨。中原市场方面，整体市场活跃度仍在恢复中，现货贴水收窄，市场实际成交价格与中原市场均价基本持平。豫沪价差贴水 170 元 / 吨左右，中原 A00 铝对沪铝 2502 合约报价为 20370 元 / 吨，较上一交易日下跌 20 元 / 吨。
再生铝原料市场：持货商陆续复工复产，市场活跃度较上周有所提升。今日打包易拉罐废铝集中报价在 15150 - 15900 元 / 吨（不含税），破碎生铝集中报价在 16650 - 17950 元 / 吨（铝水、不含税价格）。目前废铝贸易商陆续恢复营业，下游按需采购，市场成交情况好转，短期精废价差预计维持震荡运行。
再生铝合金市场：国内方面，ADC12 价格保持在 21200 - 21400 元 / 吨。进口市场方面，海外 ADC12 价格处于 2420 - 2460 美元 / 吨区间，由于人民币汇率小幅走高，进口 ADC12 即期盈利略有扩大。本周再生铝市场继续复苏，再生铝厂开工率陆续回升至正常水平，上下游复工节奏加快，带动市场交易活跃度持续提升，厂家原料采购活动也陆续展开。受成本支撑及需求复苏驱动，叠加进口货源补充有限，预计短期内 ADC12 价格将延续偏强震荡格局。

四、海外市场情况

截至 2 月 13 日，西澳 FOB 氧化铝价格为 538 美元 / 吨，海运费 19.70 美元 / 吨，美元 / 人民币汇率卖出价在 7.31 附近，该价格折合国内主流港口对外售价约 4,688 元 / 吨左右，高于国内氧化铝价格 1,297 元 / 吨，氧化铝进口窗口维持关闭状态。

五、后市展望

近期特朗普签署实施对等关税的命令，新关税或于 4 月 2 日开始实施，虽然关税大棒下未来海外潜在需求前景将大幅下滑，但短期市场实际影响暂未出现。临近两会，国内政策或存在加码可能，预计下周现货价格有望冲至新高，趋势或以震荡上扬为主，下旬警惕高位回撤可能。就再生市场而言，预计下游终端市场复工情况仍难有明显起色，不过铝合金锭企业多数将烘炉完成，开工率将大幅提升，市场铝锭或进入供过于求阶段，下周价格波动区间关注 20700 - 21000 元 / 吨。

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基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

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[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000446s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000718s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000419s ]
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一、今日铝价表现

二、基本面分析

三、市场细分领域动态

四、海外市场情况

五、后市展望

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