2025年9月16日电解铜市场日报

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年9月16日电解铜市场日报

2025-09-16 17:31:52 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、今日市场

中国电解铜市场延续强势行情，主要城市价格集体大幅上涨，涨幅均超1300元/吨。其中上海地区电解铜价格报81190元/吨，较昨日上涨1410元/吨，创2025年4月以来新高；广州、重庆、北京等城市价格均突破81000元/吨，市场情绪显著升温。核心驱动因素包括：美联储9月降息预期升温推动美元走弱，国际铜价上涨；印尼Grasberg铜矿事故停产及国内废铜政策收紧加剧供应紧张；“金九银十”消费旺季启动，下游新能源车、电力行业需求增长。

二、市场核心驱动分析

宏观面，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已升至93.4%（昨日为91%），降息预期推动美元指数今日下跌0.3%至99.20，以美元计价的伦敦铜盘中最高触及10068美元/吨，创5个月新高，带动国内电解铜价格跟随上涨。供应端，全球最大铜矿印尼Grasberg因9月10日的边坡坍塌事故停产，目前仍处于救援阶段，据测算该矿月均产量约4.95万吨铜精矿，停产将导致全球铜精矿供应每月减少约4.95万吨，传导至精炼铜环节，每月将减少约4.5万吨精炼铜供应（回收率按90%计算）；同时，受2025年废铜进口配额较2024年减少15%的政策影响，9月国内电解铜产量预计减产5万吨（中国有色金属工业协会数据），进一步加剧国内供应紧张。需求端，进入9月，国内“金九银十”消费旺季逐步启动，下游行业对电解铜的采购需求明显增加：8月国内新能源车产销分别完成85万辆和83万辆，同比增长35%和33%，新能源车用铜量（每辆约80公斤）带动铜材需求增长；1-8月全国电力固定资产投资完成额同比增长18%（国家能源局数据），电力设备（如变压器、电缆）制造对电解铜的需求持续释放。

三、今日价格汇总

四、市场情绪与交易情况

贸易商：普遍惜售，部分贸易商暂停报价，等待更高价格（今日上海贸易商报价较昨日上涨1400元/吨）；
企业：下游企业加快采购节奏，今日市场成交量较昨日增加20%（据卓创资讯数据）；
期货市场：沪铜主力2510合约今日收盘报81100元/吨（+1350元/吨），持仓量增加1.2万手（昨日为18.5万手），显示多头入场积极。

五、未来展望与操作建议

短期（1-2周）需重点关注两大事件：一是美联储9月18日（下周四）的利率决议，若降息25个基点落地，将进一步强化市场对流动性宽松的预期，支撑铜价；二是印尼Grasberg铜矿的复产进度，今日印尼能源部表示“救援仍需3-5天”，若复产延迟，供应紧张将持续，铜价或继续冲高至82000元/吨（上海地区）；若复产早于预期（如10月上旬），供应紧张缓解，可能导致价格回调（回调幅度约1000-1500元/吨）。长期（1-3个月）来看，“金九银十”旺季需求的持续性是支撑铜价的核心因素，新能源车、电力行业的长期需求增长将为铜价提供支撑，但需警惕若美国经济衰退（GDP增速跌破1.5%），需求收缩将压制铜价。操作建议上，下游企业可逢低采购（如价格回调至80000元/吨以下），锁定旺季生产所需的铜原料成本；贸易商可持有少量库存，等待价格上涨；投资者短期可关注沪铜主力2510合约的多头机会，但需设置止损（如80000元/吨），防范降息不及预期（如维持利率不变）带来的回调风险

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2025年9月16日电解铜市场日报

一、今日市场

二、市场核心驱动分析

三、今日价格汇总

四、市场情绪与交易情况

五、未来展望与操作建议

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