基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年10月14日电解铜市场日报

2025-10-14 17:38:15 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、行情概述

2025年10月14日，国内主要城市电解铜价格迎来全线上涨，9个样本城市均价约86180元/吨，涨幅均超1300元/吨；其中上海以86235元/吨（涨1305元/吨）、重庆86230元/吨（涨1320元/吨）、武汉86250元/吨（涨1300元/吨）居价格前列，广州则以1330元/吨的涨幅成为当日涨幅最大的城市，而天津（86050元/吨，涨1300元/吨）、济南（86070元/吨，涨1320元/吨）等北方城市价格虽相对较低，但涨幅亦同步扩大。

二、价格分析：区域差异与需求驱动

从区域表现看，东部及中西部核心城市价格领跑市场：上海作为国内电解铜主要贸易枢纽，受贸易商备货需求增加及LME铜价（今日报9500美元/吨，涨1.5%）联动效应影响，价格始终处于高位；重庆、武汉则依托中西部新能源产业集群（如重庆光伏电池基地、武汉电动汽车产业园）的终端需求增长，支撑铜价上行；广州作为华南电解铜消费重地（覆盖家电、电子、新能源领域），其显著涨幅反映了该区域需求的强劲韧性；而北方的天津、济南因冬季部分基建项目施工放缓，需求略有减弱，但整体仍保持增长，故价格涨幅略小。

三、上涨驱动因素：供应忧虑+需求爆发+宏观支撑

此次铜价上涨背后，供应端的忧虑、需求端的爆发以及宏观面的支撑形成合力：供应端，智利作为全球最大铜矿生产国（占全球产量30%），其冶炼产能不足成为制约精炼铜供应的关键瓶颈，Codelco近期宣布的17亿美元冶炼厂扩建项目需3-5年投产，短期无法缓解产能压力，市场担忧未来1-2年精炼铜供应短缺；需求端，国内新能源产业（光伏、电池、电动汽车）的快速扩张成为核心支撑——2025年国内光伏装机量预计达150GW（每GW需铜约500吨，合计7.5万吨）、电池产能预计达1000GWh（铜箔需求占电解铜需求10%）、电动车销量预计达1200万辆（每辆需铜约80公斤，合计9.6万吨），多重需求叠加推动铜价上行；宏观端，美元指数近期跌破100关口（铜以美元计价，美元贬值推动价格上涨），且国内货币政策保持宽松（MLF利率维持2.5%不变，流动性充足），进一步支撑大宗商品价格。

四、市场展望：短期强势，长期看供需平衡

展望市场，短期（1-3个月）内，供应忧虑（智利冶炼产能瓶颈）与需求增长（新能源行业）将继续支撑价格，预计国内电解铜价格将保持在86000-87000元/吨区间波动，若上海期货交易所铜库存（当前约10万吨）继续下降，价格可能突破87000元/吨；长期（6-12个月）看，新能源行业需求增长的确定性（2025年新能源行业铜需求占比预计达25%）将支撑铜价高位震荡，但需警惕三大风险：宏观因素（美元走强、国内政策收紧如房地产调控加强）、供应端（智利冶炼厂投资进度加快，产能瓶颈缓解）、需求端（新能源行业增长不及预期如光伏补贴退坡、电动车销量放缓）。

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