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2025年10月27日电解铜市场日报

2025-10-27 17:26:56 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、今日价格概况

根据中冶有色网2025年10月27日16:20数据，国内主要城市电解铜（含税阴极铜）平均价格约88100元/吨，较上一交易日（10月24日，因周末顺延）上涨约1720元/吨，涨幅达2.0%，创2025年7月以来新高；其中广州88200元/吨（涨1740元/吨）、上海88140元/吨（涨1720元/吨）、重庆88195元/吨（涨1710元/吨）、武汉88180元/吨（涨1720元/吨）、西安88120元/吨（涨1740元/吨）、沈阳88100元/吨（涨1760元/吨），全线大幅上涨。

二、价格上涨驱动因素分析

价格上涨主要受三方面因素推动——宏观上，美元指数跌至98.5（较上周五跌0.8%，创2024年新低），美元计价LME铜涨1.5%至9600美元/吨，通过汇率传导推高人民币计价铜价；供需上，供应端10月6家主流冶炼厂检修（涉及粗炼产能140万吨）导致产量环比下降3.4%（约108万吨），且铜精矿加工费持续负值（-40.8美元/吨）加剧原料紧张，供应收紧；需求端新能源行业（光伏、电池、电动车）需求爆发，2025年1-9月光伏装机量120GW（同比增35%）、动力电池产量35GWh（9月同比增28%）、新能源汽车销量650万辆（1-9月同比增22%），新能源需求占比从2023年12%提升至18%，支撑长期需求；资金面，沪铜期货主力合约（2512）涨2.1%至88200元/吨，成交量增30%，投机资金入场，贸易商惜售、下游新能源企业提前补库进一步推高现货价格。

三、市场供需动态补充

供需动态方面，10月电解铜进口量约12万吨（同比降15%），因国际铜价高于国内导致进口比价不利，进口量减少加剧供应紧张；需求端传统行业（家电、电力设备）复苏缓慢（10月家电排产同比下滑10%），但新能源行业需求增长弥补了缺口，整体需求保持韧性。

四、未来展望

短期（1-2周）价格或维持高位震荡，支撑因素包括供应紧张（检修、原料短缺）、新能源需求增长、美元贬值，压制因素为传统行业需求复苏慢、国际铜价波动（美元反弹）；中长期（3-6个月）仍有上涨空间，因新能源行业需求持续增长（2025年铜需求总量预计1200万吨，同比增5%），而铜精矿供应短缺（全球产量增速低于需求）导致冶炼厂产量难以大幅增加，供需紧平衡持续支撑价格；风险提示包括美元反弹、国内货币政策收紧等宏观风险，冶炼厂检修结束（产量恢复）、新能源需求不及预期等供需风险，以及国内对大宗商品价格调控（如抛储）的政策风险。

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2025年10月27日电解铜市场日报

一、今日价格概况

二、价格上涨驱动因素分析

三、市场供需动态补充

四、未来展望

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