基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年11月13日电解铜市场日报

2025-11-13 16:49:52 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：郝炳文

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期货与现货价格概况

今日国内铜期货市场延续涨势，沪铜主力合约收于87550元/吨，上涨0.95%；国际铜期货主力合约收于78070点，上涨1.09%。现货市场方面，上海现货1#电解铜报价87090元/吨，较昨日上涨370元/吨。随着交割日临近，现货升贴水趋于稳定，市场成交多围绕平水水平展开。

供需格局与边际变化

供应端持续偏紧，全球主要铜生产商智利Codelco近期再次下调2025年产量预期，而国内铜冶炼厂正处于检修高峰，10-11月电解铜产量处于年内偏低水平。虽然11月产量预计小幅回升，但铜精矿加工费持续低位运行，原料供应紧张局面未改。

需求端呈现分化迹象，现货市场采购情绪有所提升，但下游对价格敏感，当铜价升至87000元/吨上方后，采购意愿有所减弱。高铜价对消费的抑制效应已经显现，但年末部分企业为冲刺产销目标推出的促销政策，在一定程度上拉动了下游需求。

宏观与政策环境

宏观方面，美国政府停摆接近结束，众议院已通过程序性投票，缓解了市场对流动性紧张的担忧。美联储内部对通胀和利率路径存在分歧，12月降息预期约为59.4%。政策面上，美国将铜列入关键矿产清单，凸显其战略地位，而中国央行提出实施“适度宽松”货币政策，为市场提供流动性支持。

市场展望

短期来看，铜价在供应收紧与政策宽松支撑下保持强势，但现货需求疲软和高价抑制效应令市场追高情绪谨慎。机构建议可采取买入看跌期权策略管理风险。预计铜价将继续维持高位震荡，核心支撑位关注85000元一线，后续需密切关注美联储政策动向及国内下游需求实际表现。

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