基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年11月21日电解铜市场日报

2025-11-21 16:53:09 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：郝炳文

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一、价格概览
今日国内铜期货市场延续跌势，沪铜主力2601合约收盘报85,660元/吨，日内下跌0.83%，本周累计下跌1.43%。国际铜期货主力合约收于76,370元/吨，下跌0.70%。上海现货报85780元/吨，较昨日下跌640元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（85660.00元/吨）升水120元/吨。

二、影响因素分析
宏观层面，美国9月就业数据呈现分化，非农就业人数超预期增长，但失业率升至近四年高位。多位美联储官员表态偏鹰派，强调2%通胀目标，市场对12月降息预期减弱，美元指数高位运行，对铜价形成压制。

供需基本面，供应端持续偏紧。铜精矿加工费（TC）已降至21.25美元/吨的历史低位，现货加工费甚至跌至负值。全球主要铜矿企业第三季度产量同比骤降4.7%，印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流停产，造成25万-26万吨产量损失。需求端表现分化，传统地产与家电领域需求疲软，但电力与新能源板块形成有力支撑。电力板块占铜需求40%-50%，光伏、风电和新能源汽车领域用铜量持续增长，有效对冲传统领域需求下滑。

政策环境，中国有色金属行业"反内卷"政策持续推进，有关部门考虑对铜、铅、锌等大宗金属设立产能"天花板"，严控新增产能，中长期有望优化行业供给结构。

三、市场展望
短期来看，铜价受宏观情绪压制明显，美元强势与需求担忧主导市场走势。但中长期来看，全球铜市供需缺口扩大（2025年预计达15万吨，2026年扩大至30万吨），叠加新能源领域需求韧性和潜在降息周期，铜价底部支撑坚实，突破历史高点或仅为时间问题。

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