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2025年11月21日锂市场日报

2025-11-21 17:11:51 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：郝炳文

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市场概况

2025年11月21日，碳酸锂期货市场经历显著调整，主力合约大幅下跌9%，报收91,020元/吨。此次回调发生在价格此前连续上涨并突破10万元/吨关口后，反映出市场情绪与资金面的快速转变。

价格变动分析

期货市场今日的下跌或与广州期货交易所近期出台的调控措施有关。广期所宣布自2025年11月24日交易时起，对碳酸锂期货实施交易限额。具体措施包括，非期货公司会员或者客户在碳酸锂期货LC2601合约上单日开仓量不得超过500手，在LC2602、LC2603、LC2604、LC2605合约上单日开仓量不得超过2000手。此举旨在抑制过度投机，给市场降温。

此前，碳酸锂期货市场资金博弈激烈，持仓总量创下上市以来新高。在交易所宣布调控措施后，市场情绪迅速逆转，今日出现大幅回调。类似的情况在过去的商品期货市场中亦有发生，例如在2025年7月，交易所出台限仓政策后，碳酸锂等品种随即出现跌停。

现货市场方面，电池级碳酸锂价格表现相对稳定，但下游企业对高位锂价的接受度普遍不高。现货市场成交较为清淡，多以刚需采购为主，期现市场出现明显背离。当前期货价格较现货价格从前期升水转为贴水，表明市场预期已发生变化。

从基本面看，碳酸锂市场并未发生显著变化。供应端，碳酸锂社会库存仍在持续去化。需求端，储能与动力电池需求保持增长。供需层面的变化不大。

近日碳酸锂价格的大幅波动，主要驱动力并非基本面因素，而是情绪与资金面的变化。前期价格的快速上涨，很大程度上源于资金基于对远端需求的乐观预期涌入期货市场，推高了期价。当交易所出台限制措施后，投机情绪降温，资金迅速撤离，导致价格大幅回调。

历史经验表明，当期货市场成交持仓比指标显著上升，显示投机度增加时，容易引发交易所的调控。在当前情况下，交易所的干预有效抑制了非理性炒作，引导市场回归理性。

后市展望

短期来看，碳酸锂价格预计将延续高位震荡格局。投资者需密切关注资金情绪变化。当前市场多空分歧较大，若情绪进一步逆转，可能引发更剧烈的平仓踩踏。

长期而言，碳酸锂价格最终将回归基本面。在供需并未出现严重短缺的背景下，由情绪和资金驱动的价格剧烈波动难以持续，市场终将寻求新的平衡。

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