2025年2月20日锗镓锑市场日报：光伏需求提振锗价技术替代压制镓市内外价差驱动锑市冲高

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年2月20日锗镓锑市场日报：光伏需求提振锗价技术替代压制镓市内外价差驱动锑市冲高

2025-02-20 11:17:09 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、锗市场：光伏需求边际改善，价格企稳

现货行情
- 金属锗（99.99%）：国内主流报价 8900-9200元/千克，较节前持平；欧洲鹿特丹仓库报价 1200-1250美元/千克（折合人民币约8600-9000元/千克），内外价差倒挂刺激出口。
- 二氧化锗（GeO₂, 99.999%）：高纯级报价 7500-7800元/千克，光伏玻璃企业长单占比提升至80%。
供需动态
- 供应收缩：云南临沧锗业因环保检查减产30%，1月国内原生锗产量环比下降15%；再生锗回收率提升至38%，但原料（废弃光纤、红外镜头）供应紧张。
- 需求分化：
  - 光伏：2月光伏玻璃日熔量回升至12.6万吨（环比+8%），拉动锗需求；
  - 军工：红外热像仪出口订单增长20%（中东、东欧冲突催化）；
  - 光纤：5G基站建设放缓，光纤用锗量同比下滑5%。
政策与贸易：
- 中国对锗制品出口管制延续，1月出口量同比减少12%；
- 美国国防部启动300吨锗战略储备招标，价格溢价15%。

后市展望：中信建投预计，Q2锗价或反弹至9500元/千克，但需警惕高价抑制中小下游企业采购。

二、镓市场：硝酸镓报价受限，氮化镓技术冲击隐现

现货行情
- 金属镓（99.99%）：长江现货报价 2350-2450元/千克，较1月下跌2%，主因半导体库存去化缓慢；
- 氮化镓（GaN）晶圆：6英寸报价 1800-2000美元/片，碳化硅（SiC）替代导致需求增速放缓至8%（2024年为15%）。
产业链动态
- 供应端：中国占全球镓供应超90%，但1月河南、山西镓冶炼厂开工率仅65%（环保限产）；
- 需求端：
  - LED：Mini LED背光需求增长12%，但传统LED用镓量下滑；
  - 射频器件：5G基站GaN射频芯片渗透率提升至35%，但整体市场规模受经济放缓压制。
技术替代风险：
- 特斯拉宣布2025年车载充电模块全面转向SiC，GaN份额或缩减；
- 台积电3nm制程中镓基材料用量下降30%。

机构观点：瑞银认为，镓价中长期承压，2025年均价或跌至2200元/千克。

三、锑市场：内外价差历史新高，光伏+阻燃双驱动

现货行情
- 锑锭（1#）：湖南市场报价 143,500元/吨（+1.5%），欧洲鹿特丹报价 38,000美元/吨（折人民币约26万元/吨），价差达82%，刺激贸易商出口套利；
- 三氧化二锑（99.8%）：出口FOB价 18,800-19,200美元/吨，欧洲买家加仓备货（库存周期从4周延长至6周）。
供需核心逻辑
- 矿端紧缺：湖南冷水江锑矿复产推迟至3月，1月全球锑矿产量同比降8%；
- 需求爆发：
  - 光伏玻璃：澄清剂用锑需求同比增25%，单GW耗锑量升至55吨；
  - 阻燃剂：欧盟新规强制电子设备阻燃标准升级，出口订单增30%。
资金与政策：
- 上期所拟推出锑期货，吸引套保资金入场；
- 刚果（金）拟对锑矿出口加征15%资源税，2025年3月生效。

风险提示：若LME重启锑交割品牌认证，内外价差或快速收敛。

价格情况

锗价走势（元/千克）：
- 2024年Q4：8500 → 9200
- 2025年1月：9100 → 8900
- 2025年2月：8900 → 9200（预测）
锑内外价差（欧洲/国内）：
- 2024年均值：1.5倍 → 2025年2月：1.8倍

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2025年2月20日锗镓锑市场日报：光伏需求提振锗价 技术替代压制镓市 内外价差驱动锑市冲高

一、锗市场：光伏需求边际改善，价格企稳

二、镓市场：硝酸镓报价受限，氮化镓技术冲击隐现

三、锑市场：内外价差历史新高，光伏+阻燃双驱动

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