基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年11月24日电解铜市场日报

2025-11-24 18:12:00 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：郝炳文

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1. 价格行情总结

今日国内铜期货市场小幅震荡，现货价格明显上涨。截至收盘，上海期货交易所沪铜主力合约报收86080元/吨，微涨0.09%；国际铜期货主力合约报收76710元/吨，上涨0.12%。

现货市场方面，上海现货铜报价86195元/吨，较上一交易日上涨415元/吨，涨幅明显大于期货市场。现货升水维持在10-160元/吨，平均升水85元/吨。

2. 影响因素分析
供应方面，国际铜研究组织数据显示，2025年前9个月全球精炼铜市场出现约9.4万吨的过剩。但近期矿山供应干扰频发，印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格铜矿发生泥石流事故，刚果民主共和国和智利的主要矿山也相继发生事故，加剧了市场对供应的担忧。
需求方面，下游采购情绪有所下降，铜价回升至86000元/吨以上抑制了下游采购意愿。不过，长期需求前景依然乐观，新能源汽车、数据中心、风电和光伏等新兴领域对铜的需求持续增长。预计2025-2030年间，新能源汽车用铜年复合增速将达16%；到2030年，数据中心带来的新增铜需求量或达55万吨，约占2024年全球铜需求的2%。
政策面上，中国有色金属行业"反内卷"政策持续推进，《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》提出，2025-2026年十种有色金属产量年均增长目标设定为1.5%左右，较2024年4.3%的增速明显收缩，有助于改善市场供需结构。

3. 后市展望
短期来看，随着会议周开始，部分供应商减少报价，铜价在86000元/吨附近企稳。长期而言，高盛报告认为"1万美元将成为新的价格下限"，预计2026-2027年铜价将在1万-1.1万美元范围内震荡。供应瓶颈与人工智能等新需求增长，共同支撑了铜价的长期前景，铜价可能稳定在每吨一万美元以上的水平。

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