基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年12月2日电解铜市场日报

2025-12-02 16:36:11 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：郝炳文

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一、当日价格摘要
2025年12月2日，国内铜市呈现期强现弱、高位震荡格局。期货方面，沪铜主力合约早间一度触及89920元/吨，随后震荡走低，收盘报88920元/吨，微涨0.1%；国际铜主力合约报收79620元/吨，上涨0.15%。现货市场表现疲软，上海电解铜现货均价报88725元/吨，较前一日下跌575元/吨。

二、期现货市场分析
日内铜价高开低走，交投重心下移。现货市场流通货源偏紧，支撑升水小幅抬升，其中平水铜升水较上一交易日上涨25元/吨。现货价格回调后，下游采购意愿较前一日有所上升，但整体来看，高铜价对终端消费的抑制作用依然存在，下游新增订单有限，采买情绪偏向谨慎。

三、宏观与基本面分析
宏观层面多空交织。一方面，市场对美联储12月降息的预期强劲，美元走弱对金属价格构成支撑。另一方面，美国11月ISM制造业PMI连续第九个月处于收缩区间，反映了宏观需求的压力。

基本面呈现显著的供需紧平衡态势。供应端持续紧张，铜精矿加工费运行于负值区间，原料供给问题突出。智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）大幅上调合约溢价，以及中国主要冶炼厂计划明年削减约10%的产量，加剧了市场对全球铜供应短缺的担忧。需求端则进入传统消费淡季，高铜价进一步抑制了部分下游需求。国内社会库存整体保持中低水位，但需关注消费淡季可能带来的累库影响。

四、机构观点汇总
主流机构观点以高位震荡为主。多数机构认为，长期的供应紧张预期是支撑铜价中枢上移的核心逻辑。然而，短期而言，高价位对需求的抑制、宏观情绪的扰动以及实际供需的博弈，使得铜价进一步向上突破缺乏强劲动能。市场操作建议普遍偏向谨慎，建议轻仓交易或暂时观望，注意控制风险。

五、总结与展望
综合来看，12月2日铜市在创纪录高位附近呈现理性整理。强劲的长期供应缺口预期与短期的需求抑制及宏观不确定性形成对峙。预计铜价短期内将维持高位震荡格局，能否有效突破前高，有待观察后续宏观数据指引及现货消费的验证情况。

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