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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

2025年12月17日电解铜价格日报

2025-12-17 16:48:51 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：郝炳文

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一、市场行情
2025年12月17日，国内外铜价在高位呈现震荡整理态势。国内期货方面，沪铜主力合约收盘报92820元/吨，日内上涨0.40%；国际铜主力合约收盘报83100元/吨，同步上涨0.40%。现货市场方面，上海地区1#电解铜现货均价报92025元/吨，较前一日小幅上涨35元/吨，但现货维持贴水状态，市场成交活跃度一般。隔夜外盘伦铜收于11619美元/吨，小幅下跌。

今日铜市呈现“期货强、现货弱”的特征。期货价格在连续创下高位后维持强势，但现货市场跟涨乏力。据市场反馈，持货商出货积极，而下游企业对当前高价接受度有限，多按需采购，导致现货贴水幅度继续扩大。好铜贴水扩大至100元/吨以上，平水铜贴水约170元/吨。这种期现结构反映了当前高铜价对实际消费的抑制效应。

二、核心驱动因素
近期铜价强势主要受以下多重因素驱动。一是宏观流动性预期，市场对美联储未来的降息与扩表预期持续，为包括铜在内的商品价格提供了关键支撑。二是结构性供应紧张，全球铜矿供应长期受勘探投入不足、新增项目稀缺以及近期主要产区生产扰动制约，铜精矿加工费持续处于低位，从成本端形成支撑。此外，美国因潜在的关税政策而进行的囤货行为，实质上从全球流通体系中锁定了部分库存，加剧了其他地区的供应紧张预期。三是新兴需求驱动，人工智能（AI）基础设施建设和全球能源转型带来的长期需求增长预期，吸引了大量投机资金将铜作为“科技概念资产”进行交易，显著推升了价格。

三、行情展望
综合来看，铜市场受供需紧平衡和宏观宽松预期的支撑，中长期整体趋势依然偏强。然而，短期需警惕两方面风险：一是当前价格已包含较多投机成分，目前正在震荡整理消化；二是高价对下游实体需求的抑制效应正在显现，可能限制价格进一步上行空间。预计短期内铜价将延续高位震荡，操作上谨防追高。

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