铜市场周报（2024.12.30-2025.01.03）

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜市场周报（2024.12.30-2025.01.03）

2025-01-14 09:14:23 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势回顾

本周铜价持续走跌，沪铜收盘于73810元/吨，节后现货价格升水回升明显。

二、宏观：美元冲高需求预期降温，宏观环境对铜价偏空

标普全球PMI维持收缩区间，全球主要几个经济体12月PMI走弱，美国、中国、欧元区12月PMI走弱，宏观上需求预期偏弱。美元指数走高且消费转弱，阶段性施压价格当前铜价的驱动逻辑偏向利空。

三、供应

铜精矿现货TC/RC持续走弱，精铜供应将减少。本周铜精矿现货加工费TC 为5.85 美元/吨，冶炼厂亏损为1800 元/吨左右，亏损较上周有所扩大。铜精矿现货市场成交冷淡，贸易商以个位数中位的加工费向冶炼厂出售作价期为M+5 的干净矿。明年一季度现货TC/RC指导加工费下调至25美元/吨及2.5美分/磅，冶炼厂依然面临亏损的风险。

四、需求端

11月铜材开工率回升，铜杆铜管11月产量明显改善，下游电力、家电在带动需求端改善，现货价小幅升水，尤其是华南地区需求回温。电线电缆终端消费进入季节性淡季，电网类订单保持稳定，但是房地产与基建工程订单疲软。同时，临近农历新年，线缆企业降低开工率，且敦促下游提货，以减少成品库存。铜杆企业开工率大幅下滑，除电线电缆企业订单减少外，铜杆企业也主动减产以回笼资金为主。空调主机厂排产依然处于高位，但铜管企业也持续回笼资金，开工率小幅下滑。铜板带箔终端新增订单放缓，铜板带箔企业开工率承压。

五、库存

国内铜社会库存增加；保税区库存减少；LME 库存减少，注销仓单比例上升。终端消费弱化，部分铜材企业减少原料采购，社会库存增加。LME 库存减少，注销仓单比例提升，但依然处于偏低水平。铜现货进口持续出现盈利，保税库货源向国内运输。从总库存看，保税区和LME 铜库存下降，但国内社库增加明显，全球总库存稍有增加。

六、行情预测

宏观预期方面，国内海外宏观环境偏利空，美元指数上升，市场避险情绪依然较浓，对铜价施压。供需基本面上呈现双弱的格局，冶炼厂已经完成出货，元旦后出货量减少。终端消费转弱，且铜材企业以回笼资金为主，降低开工率和成品库存。不过，价格处于偏低位置后，企业利润得到修复，部分企业适当增加战略性保值，对价格形成支撑。

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铜市场周报（2024.12.30-2025.01.03）

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