铟周报（2025.3.3-3.7）：铟价单周飙涨7%站上3000元关口情绪面主导短期冲高供需格局仍显僵持

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铟周报（2025.3.3-3.7）：铟价单周飙涨7%站上3000元关口情绪面主导短期冲高供需格局仍显僵持

2025-03-10 11:39:21 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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价格走势与市场动态

价格异动：本周国内铟价呈现剧烈震荡，现货价格从周初的2800元/千克快速攀升至3000元/千克关口，周内涨幅达7.14%。此轮上涨主要受市场情绪传导驱动，而非基本面实质性变化，反映出小金属板块的投机性特征。

驱动因素

板块联动效应：近期战略金属（如锑、钨等）价格强势走高，吸引投机资金布局小金属板块，铟价被动跟涨。

资金炒作：部分贸易商及下游厂商因预期出口政策调整或新兴需求增量，提前囤货，加剧短期供需错配。

供需基本面分析

供应端

原生铟：全球铟资源静态储采比约22年，中国作为最大生产国（占全球50%以上），2024年原生铟产量稳步增长，叠加再生铟技术升级（2023年再生铟产量增长23%），整体供应弹性充足。

库存压力：当前国内精铟库存处于中高位，冶炼企业出货意愿增强，压制价格上行空间。

需求端

传统领域：ITO靶材（占消费量85%）需求受显示面板行业温和复苏支撑，但家电以旧换新政策拉动有限，增速平缓。

新兴领域：光伏异质结（HJT）电池及磷化铟半导体材料需求虽被长期看好，但2025年实际增量有限（如HJT技术需100GW产能才能拉动铟需求18%），短期对价格支撑不足。

后市展望与风险提示

价格预测

短期：市场情绪可能延续，但缺乏基本面支撑下，铟价或面临回调压力，预计震荡区间为2800-3200元/千克。

长期：2025年全球磷化铟衬底市场规模预计达2.02亿美元（复合增长率12.42%），叠加光伏技术突破，铟需求有望逐步释放。

风险因素

供应超预期：再生铟产能快速扩张（如2025年国内再生铟产量或增15%），可能打破供需紧平衡。

政策扰动：出口管制、环保限产等政策若收紧，或加剧市场波动。

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铟周报（2025.3.3-3.7）：铟价单周飙涨7%站上3000元关口 情绪面主导短期冲高 供需格局仍显僵持

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铟周报（2025.3.3-3.7）：铟价单周飙涨7%站上3000元关口情绪面主导短期冲高供需格局仍显僵持