锑周报（20253.3-3.7）：锑锭报价单周飙涨近10%逼宫20万大关矿山减停产引爆供应缺口下游成本高压倒逼替代技术研发

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

锑周报（20253.3-3.7）：锑锭报价单周飙涨近10%逼宫20万大关矿山减停产引爆供应缺口下游成本高压倒逼替代技术研发

2025-03-10 14:21:58 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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价格走势与市场动态

国内外价差持续扩大本周国际锑价延续涨势，国外锑锭报价达53000美元/公吨（折合人民币约38.48万元/吨），创历史新高，而国内锑锭报价直逼20万元/吨，内外价差扩大至18万元/吨以上。出口利润显著，但进口矿因价格倒挂几乎停滞。

国内现货市场跳涨湖南地区1#锑锭均价从3月3日的16.25万元/吨飙升至3月7日的17.85万元/吨，单周涨幅达9.8%，部分冶炼厂暂停报价，市场货源紧张。

供需基本面分析

供给端：多重扰动加剧短缺

国内矿山减产：湖南锡矿山因环保技改停产，预计减产30%，叠加云南口岸锑精矿到港量骤降47%（缅甸运输受阻），国内冶炼企业原料采购困难。

进口矿断崖式下跌：2024年12月锑矿进口量仅466金属吨，同比降幅67.6%，主因俄罗斯极地黄金产量腰斩（2024年产量1.27万吨，同比降53%）。

海外冶炼产能转移：东南亚（缅甸、泰国）锑锭出口量激增345%，但短期内无法填补国内缺口。

需求端：新兴领域拉动强劲

光伏玻璃需求复苏：2025年光伏装机政策利好推动焦锑酸钠需求，光伏玻璃日熔量回升至8.5万吨，锑用量同比+25%。

阻燃剂需求超预期：溴-锑协效阻燃剂在电子电气、新能源汽车领域需求旺盛，AS80阻燃母粒单日涨幅达1.7万元/吨，下游顺价能力较强。

产业链影响与下游压力

冶炼企业成本传导受阻锑精矿价格同步上涨，湖南地区50%锑精矿均价14万元/吨（周涨2000元/吨），冶炼利润受挤压。部分中小型冶炼厂因原料短缺被迫减产。

下游行业承受力临界点临近

光伏玻璃企业联合抵制替代：三氧化二砷替代锑酸钠方案因性能不足被否决，但高价已导致部分企业转向低锑配方研发。

阻燃剂市场替代风险：硅基阻燃剂实验室突破30%替代率，预计2-3年内商业化，可能削弱长期需求。

后市展望与风险提示

价格预测

短期：情绪面驱动下，锑价或突破20万元/吨，但需警惕高位回调风险，预计震荡区间18万-22万元/吨。

中长期：全球锑供需缺口扩大至1.3万吨（2025年），资源稀缺性（静态储采比24年）和政策管制支撑价格中枢上移。

核心风险

供给端超预期释放：东南亚冶炼产能加速投产，或削弱国内定价权

需求弹性受限：锑价突破20万元/吨后，下游成本压力可能触发大规模替代。

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锑周报（20253.3-3.7）：锑锭报价单周飙涨近10%逼宫20万大关 矿山减停产引爆供应缺口 下游成本高压倒逼替代技术研发

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锑周报（20253.3-3.7）：锑锭报价单周飙涨近10%逼宫20万大关矿山减停产引爆供应缺口下游成本高压倒逼替代技术研发