铅周报（2025.3.10-3.14）：价格高位震荡警惕交割季累库压力

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铅周报（2025.3.10-3.14）：价格高位震荡警惕交割季累库压力

2025-03-14 15:41:35 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：杨浩

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一、价格走势

本周沪铅主力合约（沪铅2504）呈现"先抑后扬"走势，周初消化前期获利盘后，后半周受国内消费政策预期提振，最终收报17725元/吨，周涨幅1.43%，创2025年以来新高。现货市场呈现"南北分化"特征：上海地区1#铅锭均价从17100元/吨升至17200元/吨，广东佛山、河南济源涨幅分别达115元/吨和145元/吨，显示北方货源流通偏紧。再生精铅方面，阜阳地区受废电瓶成本支撑，报价从17150元/吨微升至17225元/吨，涨幅明显低于原生铅。

二、市场解析

【需求端】政策托底效应显现：全国两会明确3000亿元超长期特别国债支持"以旧换新"，叠加五部门《电动自行车以旧换新方案》落地，铅酸电池替换需求（占电动自行车电池80%）形成淡季对冲。据测算，仅电动自行车领域年内或释放超5000万组换购需求，支撑蓄电池企业开工率维持65%以上。值得注意的是，汽车启停电池需求环比改善12%，成为新增长点。

【供给端】复产与检修并存：3月河南、江苏等地炼厂结束春节检修，原生铅开工率回升至62%，但部分企业因铅精矿进口不畅（加工费维持85美元/吨低位），实际产量增幅受限。再生铅方面，废电瓶回收价企稳于9800元/吨，带动阜阳、江西等地炼厂利润修复，开工率环比提升5个百分点，弥补部分原生铅缺口。

【库存预警】交割压力渐显：本周上期所铅锭仓单增至5.4万吨，较月初增幅达60%，主要因2503合约交割移仓带动。值得警惕的是，社会库存已连续两周小升，反映下游"买涨不买跌"心态下，贸易商库存被动累积。历史数据显示，近三年3月交割后库存平均增幅达15%，需防范短期价格回调风险。

三、后市展望

短期来看，政策利多与交割累库形成博弈：一方面，"以旧换新"补贴落地加速终端消费，废电瓶成本支撑较强；另一方面，3月中下旬冶炼厂复产叠加交割货源集中到货，库存压力逐步显性化。建议关注两个关键变量：一是4月蓄电池企业订单持续性（传统淡季考验真实需求），二是LME铅库存（当前26.7万吨创11年新高）对内外盘比价的影响。中期维持"高位震荡偏弱"判断。

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铅周报（2025.3.10-3.14）：价格高位震荡 警惕交割季累库压力

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