铜市场周报（3.14-3.24）：铜价重心延续上抬沪粤升水价差拉大

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜市场周报（3.14-3.24）：铜价重心延续上抬沪粤升水价差拉大

2025-03-24 11:22:30 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势与市场表现

铜价重心上移本周铜价延续上涨趋势，沪铜主力合约价格突破8万元/吨关口，最高触及81810元/吨，周涨幅0.74%，LME铜价围绕9850美元/吨震荡，周涨幅0.73%。COMEX铜价受美伦价差扩大（约1500美元）推动，周涨幅达4.24%，创阶段性新高。
现货升水分化显著
- 上海市场：进口铜到货增加（韩国、湿法等货源为主），叠加月差BACK走扩至200元/吨，现货升水承压下跌，周内一度贴水100元/吨，但交割后低价货源消化完毕，升水反弹至平水附近。
- 广东市场：因区域内冶炼厂产量不及预期，叠加沪粤价差套利空间打开，部分货源从华东转移至华南，支撑现货升水相对坚挺，周内升水维持平水至升50元/吨，交割后预计回升至升150-300元/吨。

二、核心驱动因素

宏观情绪边际改善
- 美联储维持年内降息预期（点阵图显示降息2次），同时放缓缩表节奏，释放偏鸽信号，提振市场风险偏好。国内政策端持续发力，财政部、央行等表态支持消费及产业升级，推动铜金融属性走强。
供应端扰动缓解与库存分化
- 原料供应改善：巴拿马批准出口Cobre矿12万吨铜精矿，自由港获印尼127万吨出口许可，全球铜矿供应紧张预期缓和。国内冶炼厂逐步恢复生产，电解铜周产量环比增加0.5万吨至24.2万吨。
- 库存表现分化：境内铜库存累库1.17万吨至36.6万吨（上海库存小幅下降，广东到货增加但需求疲软），LME库存去库0.92万吨至22.46万吨，全球显性库存回升至67.53万吨，反映供需区域性矛盾。
需求端韧性不足
- 高铜价抑制下游采购，精铜杆、再生铜杆及黄铜棒行业开工率环比下滑，终端企业以刚需采购为主。光伏及新能源领域需求虽存支撑，但地产、传统基建等板块订单增量有限，整体消费未现显著回暖。

三、沪粤价差拉大逻辑

区域供需失衡
- 上海市场受进口铜冲击（仓单提单溢价跌至52-67美元/吨），现货升水承压；广东市场因本地冶炼厂产量偏低且华东货源流入，升水维持高位，两地价差扩大至100-150元/吨。
交割换月与套利驱动
- 交割前月差走扩（BACK结构）加剧贸易商调货意愿，华东低价货源南下华南，进一步拉大沪粤价差。

四、后市展望

铜价高位震荡风险
- 短期原料供应改善及宏观情绪降温或压制铜价上行空间，沪铜主力参考区间79000-82000元/吨。若关税政策落地或地缘风险升温，需警惕回调压力。
升水分化延续
- 上海市场进口铜增量压制升水反弹空间，预计运行于升100-250元/吨；广东市场低库存及货源转移支撑升水，交割后或回升至升150-300元/吨。
关注变量
- 政策端：国内消费刺激政策细则及美联储降息节奏。
- 供应端：海外铜矿出口恢复进度及国内冶炼厂增产持续性。
- 需求端：光伏装机旺季备货及地产链需求修复节奏。

综上，铜市多空因素交织，建议投资者关注沪粤价差套利机会，同时警惕高波动风险，产业链企业需灵活运用期货工具对冲价格波动。

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铜市场周报（3.14-3.24）：铜价重心延续上抬 沪粤升水价差拉大

一、价格走势与市场表现

二、核心驱动因素

三、沪粤价差拉大逻辑

四、后市展望

有色金属报告推荐

铜市场周报（3.14-3.24）：铜价重心延续上抬沪粤升水价差拉大