基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

铜市场周报（2024.12.16-2024.12.20）

2025-01-14 09:10:28 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势回顾

上周沪铜延续下跌，沪铜主力合约下跌1.3%，收报于73820元/吨。，随着铜价下挫，现货升水有所走强，精废价差持续收窄。

二、宏观：美元冲高需求预期降温，宏观环境对铜价偏空

美联储如期降息25个基点，联储议息会议放鹰，叠加美国三季度GDP增速和首申数据好于预期，美元和美债利率走强。中央经济工作会议落地后人民币资产利多出尽，短期再进入政策真空期，市场情绪转弱。宏观情绪偏空，有色金属走势承压。

三、供应

国内去库速度放缓，因两家冶炼厂投产，12月冶炼端产量环比抬升。标准干净铜精矿TC周指数为10.6美元/干吨，较上周跌0.5美元/干吨。

四、需求端

整体下游消费在抢出口以及以旧换新支撑下消费端表现不错，整体还未体现出淡季特征。但近期广州日度出库量已有放缓，且年底企业备货库存意愿有所下行。

五、库存

国内本周继续累库格局，下游因传统消费淡季逐渐来临以及订单偏弱，观望情绪浓。

六、行情预测

美元指数上冲驱动偏空，美联储本年度最后一次降息后对未来一段时间的货币政策表态偏鹰，叠加美国债务上限临近流动性面临收紧压力，预计情绪面仍有压制；中国政策表态偏积极，但经济改善程度仍待验证。产业上看年底国内消费偏淡，而供应相对正常，供需预期弱化，海外现货维持较大贴水，总体预计铜价反弹空间相对受限。

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基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

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