铜市场周报（3.22-3.28）：高位震荡中政策博弈加剧全球库存拐点与需求韧性分化并存

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜市场周报（3.22-3.28）：高位震荡中政策博弈加剧全球库存拐点与需求韧性分化并存

2025-03-28 16:38:12 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势：高位震荡承压，区域分化显著

国内期现价格波动
- 本周沪铜主力合约累计下跌0.93%，收于80,810元/吨，LME铜价同步回落至9,846.5美元/吨，但美铜因关税政策预期一度刷新历史高位至11,273美元/吨，溢价幅度达12.4%。
- 现货市场分化明显：上海地区平水铜贴水20元/吨，华北地区因下游畏高情绪成交冷清，天津市场贴水扩大至280元/吨。
国际价差驱动跨市套利
- 美铜与伦铜价差扩大至1,393美元/吨，刺激全球铜库存向美国转移，预计未来几周将有10万-15万吨精铜抵美港口，可能推高美国库存至40万吨。

二、供需分析：矿端压力缓解，需求韧性分化

供应端改善与成本压力
- 铜矿供应：印尼新增100万吨铜精矿出口配额，自由港获127万吨出口许可，智利Collahuasi铜矿复产，短期矿端紧张格局缓解；但铜精矿加工费（TC）仍处低位（-15.83美元/吨），冶炼利润受硫酸价格上涨支撑。
- 国内电解铜产量：3月预计达111.84万吨，环比增长7.4%，但部分冶炼厂因原料短缺调整生产计划。
需求端分化与负反馈显现
- 传统领域：电力投资与家电补贴支撑铜杆开工率（72.63%，环比+8.31%），但房地产需求仍疲弱。
- 新兴领域：新能源汽车前2月销量同比+52%，光伏需求增速边际放缓；铜管开工率82.33%，漆包线旺季特征显著。
- 高铜价抑制：中小型加工企业暂停接货，精铜杆企业开工率环比下降5.21%至69.93%。

三、库存动态：全球显性库存现拐点

国内库存累库趋缓
- 国内社会库存降至33.65万吨（环比-1.93万吨），上海库存24.43万吨（环比+1.28万吨），广东库存6.77万吨（环比-0.53万吨），保税区库存累至11.65万吨（环比+134.4%）。
- LME库存周降1.68万吨至24.42万吨，亚洲仓库铜提取量达2017年以来峰值。

四、宏观与政策：关税扰动与金融属性博弈

关税政策预期主导市场情绪
- 特朗普政府拟于4月2日对进口铜加征25%关税，引发企业提前囤货及跨市套利，美铜溢价扩大，但高基数下涨幅可能放缓。
- 国内政策端稳增长发力，《铜产业高质量发展方案》支撑长期需求，但进口亏损扩大至-957.56元/吨，抑制海外货源流入。
金融属性与美元波动
- 美联储降息预期支撑铜价中期上行，但美元指数波动及地缘冲突（中东局势、俄乌谈判）加剧短期价格震荡。

五、后市展望：高位震荡延续，关注政策落地

短期（1-2周）
- 铜价或在79,000-82,000元/吨区间波动，需警惕关税落地后跨市套利平仓引发的回调风险。现货升水或企稳于贴水50~升水0元/吨，建议下游逢低按需采购。
中期（1-3个月）
- 铜矿供应扰动（智利产量波动、资源民族主义）与新能源需求韧性支撑铜价中枢上移，LME铜价或突破10,000美元/吨，但需防范美联储政策转向及再生铜替代效应（精废差1,320元/吨）。

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[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000463s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000840s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000532s ]
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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_index_cate` WHERE `cate_aid` = 1 ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.000478s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=10 and cate_cid=27 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=113 and mode02=-1 and mode03=941 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.259961s ]
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铜市场周报（3.22-3.28）：高位震荡中政策博弈加剧 全球库存拐点与需求韧性分化并存

一、价格走势：高位震荡承压，区域分化显著

二、供需分析：矿端压力缓解，需求韧性分化

三、库存动态：全球显性库存现拐点

四、宏观与政策：关税扰动与金融属性博弈

五、后市展望：高位震荡延续，关注政策落地

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铜市场周报（3.22-3.28）：高位震荡中政策博弈加剧全球库存拐点与需求韧性分化并存