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铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧库存去化显韧性

2025-03-28 16:53:23 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、市场动态与政策导向

本周铝市呈现宏观与基本面的双重博弈。美联储维持利率不变并放缓资产负债表缩减步伐，叠加国内降准降息预期，市场流动性预期改善。但欧盟计划对废钢及金属出口实施限制，叠加美国对华铝产品加征 25% 关税落地，短期抑制出口需求。国内方面，北方氧化铝厂因亏损扩大（行业亏损比例达 63%）主动压降 30 万吨产能，原料端支撑略有增强，而四川等地电解铝复产带动产量微幅上行，供应弹性显现。

二、供需基本面分析

供应端结构性调整

1.氧化铝产能加速出清：国内 2 月氧化铝产量同比增长 10.4% 至 694 万吨，但进口矿价弱势运行叠加成本压力，北方企业减产动作频发，行业集中度进一步提升。

2.电解铝产能稳中有增：国内运行产能受限于政策天花板，周度表需环比上行，四川等地复产推动产量持稳小幅增长。印尼 Adro 公司北加里曼丹电解铝项目计划四季度投产 10 万吨，海外供应增量预期逐渐明晰。

需求端分化延续

1.国内消费呈现两极：光伏抢装、汽车轻量化需求延续韧性，建筑型材、铝线缆等传统领域复苏乏力。1-2 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量同比减少 11%，出口压力显现，但东南亚等新兴市场存在替代空间。

2.海外需求边际改善：美欧制造业 PMI 连续站上枯荣线，叠加欧盟财政扩张，工业需求预期回暖，LME 铝库存延续去库至 48.4 万吨，对价格形成支撑。

三、行业热点与后市展望

政策与项目进展

欧盟碳关税修正案拟扩大至铝密集型下游产品，或加速国内铝产业绿色转型。

几内亚铝土矿发运环比下行，叠加印尼电解铝项目推进，全球铝资源供应链格局面临重构。

后市展望

短期：铝价在 21000 元 / 吨上方面临技术阻力，若需求复苏不及预期，可能再度下探成本支撑位。

中长期：全球库存去化通道开启，叠加国内稳增长政策预期，铝价下方支撑较强。但需警惕印尼等海外新增产能释放及美联储货币政策转向风险。

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基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

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铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧 库存去化显韧性

一、市场动态与政策导向

二、供需基本面分析

三、行业热点与后市展望

铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧库存去化显韧性