铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧库存去化显韧性

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧库存去化显韧性

2025-03-28 16:53:23 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、市场动态与政策导向

本周铝市呈现宏观与基本面的双重博弈。美联储维持利率不变并放缓资产负债表缩减步伐，叠加国内降准降息预期，市场流动性预期改善。但欧盟计划对废钢及金属出口实施限制，叠加美国对华铝产品加征 25% 关税落地，短期抑制出口需求。国内方面，北方氧化铝厂因亏损扩大（行业亏损比例达 63%）主动压降 30 万吨产能，原料端支撑略有增强，而四川等地电解铝复产带动产量微幅上行，供应弹性显现。

二、供需基本面分析

供应端结构性调整

1.氧化铝产能加速出清：国内 2 月氧化铝产量同比增长 10.4% 至 694 万吨，但进口矿价弱势运行叠加成本压力，北方企业减产动作频发，行业集中度进一步提升。

2.电解铝产能稳中有增：国内运行产能受限于政策天花板，周度表需环比上行，四川等地复产推动产量持稳小幅增长。印尼 Adro 公司北加里曼丹电解铝项目计划四季度投产 10 万吨，海外供应增量预期逐渐明晰。

需求端分化延续

1.国内消费呈现两极：光伏抢装、汽车轻量化需求延续韧性，建筑型材、铝线缆等传统领域复苏乏力。1-2 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量同比减少 11%，出口压力显现，但东南亚等新兴市场存在替代空间。

2.海外需求边际改善：美欧制造业 PMI 连续站上枯荣线，叠加欧盟财政扩张，工业需求预期回暖，LME 铝库存延续去库至 48.4 万吨，对价格形成支撑。

三、行业热点与后市展望

政策与项目进展

欧盟碳关税修正案拟扩大至铝密集型下游产品，或加速国内铝产业绿色转型。

几内亚铝土矿发运环比下行，叠加印尼电解铝项目推进，全球铝资源供应链格局面临重构。

后市展望

短期：铝价在 21000 元 / 吨上方面临技术阻力，若需求复苏不及预期，可能再度下探成本支撑位。

中长期：全球库存去化通道开启，叠加国内稳增长政策预期，铝价下方支撑较强。但需警惕印尼等海外新增产能释放及美联储货币政策转向风险。

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铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧 库存去化显韧性

一、市场动态与政策导向

二、供需基本面分析

三、行业热点与后市展望

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铝市场周报（3.22-3.28）：供需博弈加剧库存去化显韧性