基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

钴市场周报(3月24日-3月28日)

2025-03-31 11:14:45 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势

本周钴市场受政策与供需双重刺激，解钴价格延续震荡上行趋势但需求分化与政策不确定性为后续走势埋下伏笔。金川钴报价从26.7万元/吨小幅上涨至约26.8万元/吨，其他品牌钴现货价维持在23.95万元/吨左右。海外市场涨跌互现，欧洲标准级钴价受合金和磁材需求支撑相对坚挺，而国内因刚果（金）出口禁令引发的供应紧张情绪逐步消化，价格波动趋缓。电解钴均价环比上涨约0.8%（前一周涨幅4.82%），硫酸钴、四氧化三钴价格则持稳。

二、核心驱动因素

供应端扰动持续，刚果（金）出口禁令：自2月24日起暂停钴出口四个月的政策仍为市场焦点，预计影响全球约7.3万吨钴供应（占年产量25%）。尽管洛阳钼业等企业通过库存缓冲短期冲击，但中小冶炼厂原料短缺风险加剧。国内冶炼厂因原料成本高企选择消耗库存，开工率小幅下滑，但电解钴周产量环比仍增加1.2%，显示头部企业产能韧性较强。

需求端，三元电池装车量同比微增3.3%，但新能源汽车销量环比下降42.1%，需求增速不及预期。智能手机及储能领域需求稳健，东南亚市场钴酸锂订单增长20%，支撑钴价。航空航天和军工领域订单稳定，高纯度钴需求保持刚性。

三、国内外市场差异

国内市场受进口原料减少影响，硫酸钴成交价维持在4.2-4.8万元/吨，但下游电池厂压价明显，实际成交以刚需为主。

国际市场欧洲标准级钴价因合金需求支撑表现强于国内，而印尼、巴西等新兴市场因中国品牌主导（市占率82%），价格跟随国内波动。

四、未来展望

短期来看，刚果（金）政策评估期临近（6月），若出口未恢复，钴价或再度冲高，但需警惕投机性囤货抛售风险。关注国内以旧换新政策对新能源车销量的拉动，以及固态电池量产（如珠海卫蓝314Ah产线）对钴需求的替代效应。

中长期来看，若刚果（金）恢复出口，钴价或回落至20-22万元/吨区间；若政策延续，产业链或加速向无钴技术（如磷酸铁锂）转型。

建议关注印尼镍钴湿法项目（如华友钴业）及国内回收体系进展，以分散供应链风险。

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