磷酸铁锂市场周报（3月24日-3月28日）

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

磷酸铁锂市场周报（3月24日-3月28日）

2025-03-31 11:25:24 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势

1、现货价格稳中微降

本周磷酸铁锂市场价格整体持稳，动力型磷酸铁锂价格区间为3.42万-3.72万元/吨，储能型价格区间为3.29万-3.41万元/吨，环比持平。但受碳酸锂价格震荡下行拖累（电池级碳酸锂均价跌至7.415万元/吨），部分散单成交价小幅松动，加工费维持稳定，企业挺价情绪仍存。

2、成本端分化

原料端碳酸锂价格下跌（周跌幅约150元/吨），而磷酸铁受工业一铵等成本支撑局部试探性调涨（部分厂商报价上调100-200元/吨），但下游对高价接受度有限，实际成交以长协订单为主。

二、供需分析

1、供应端：排产增长但产量不及预期

头部企业开工率维持高位，4月排产预计环比增长4%-5%，但部分厂商因订单不足导致实际产量未达目标，行业整体产能利用率约70%-75%。

库存压力显现，磷酸铁锂正极厂库库存持续累积，部分企业库存周转天数增至15-20天。

2、需求端：动力与储能分化

动力电池：终端车企去库周期延长，3月新能源汽车销量环比下降42.1%，导致电芯厂压价情绪升温，采购以刚需为主。

储能市场：海外订单增长显著（尤其314Ah大容量电芯需求），部分厂商出口订单占比提升至30%以上，支撑高端储能型磷酸铁锂需求。

三、市场结构变化

1、高端化趋势加速

高压实磷酸铁锂（压实密度≥2.60g/cm³）出货量占比提升至20%以上，湖南裕能、富临精工等企业已实现批量供货，主要配套宁德时代“神行电池”等高端产品。

2、区域竞争加剧

东南亚市场成为新增长点，中国品牌在印尼、泰国市占率超80%，带动前驱体和正极材料出口需求。

欧洲市场受贸易壁垒影响（如欧盟加征关税），国内企业加速本地化产能布局以规避风险。

四、未来展望

短期（1-2个月）来看，价格或维持窄幅震荡，碳酸锂成本支撑不稳（预计跌至7.2万-7.6万元/吨），叠加磷酸铁成本传导，上下游博弈持续。关注4月下游排产是否兑现，若电芯厂补库需求回升，价格有望企稳。

中长期（2025年下半年）来看，产能过剩压力缓解，行业有效产能预计345万吨，需求缺口收窄至22%，头部企业集中度进一步提升。技术迭代（如半固态电池量产）可能加速低端产能出清，高压实、高镍低钴产品占比持续扩大。

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磷酸铁锂市场周报（3月24日-3月28日）

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