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镍周报（12.16-12.20）：镍价宽幅回落

2025-01-14 09:10:20 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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2024年12月20日，当周镍价宽幅回落，周初前期印尼消息扰动导致镍价估值明显偏高，随着情绪回落镍价开始逐步下跌。周四美联储如期降息25个基点，远期降息空间明显收窄导致宏观情绪明显回落。受此影响镍价继续下跌，逼近一体化成本线。

基本面上，印尼镍矿价格短期未有变动，消息面传出印尼将限制2025年的镍矿开采，但事项仍在讨论中，现实端镍矿整体宽松预期不改。目前矿价政策端支撑逐步显现，预计继续回落空间有限。

精炼镍方面，周内镍价宽幅回落，需求端整体交投有限，但金川资源受现货偏紧影响，升贴水表现强势。海外LME注销仓单明显增加，关注内外价差情况。

镍铁方面，周内镍铁成交价格持稳运行，下游不锈钢跌幅放缓，钢厂对原料采购节奏有所放缓，叠加钢厂减产增加，镍铁压力有所增加，但实际落地情况尚待观察。1-2月钢厂面临季节性减产，镍铁远期依旧存在压力，预计短期镍铁价格维持弱稳。

硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍疲弱持续，价格维持低位平稳。原料端中间品维持偏高系数，镍价回落导致硫酸镍即期成本下降，但由于前期硫酸镍亏损严重，未能继续跟跌。短期硫酸镍缺乏驱动，整体波动有限，价格维持成本定价。

综合来看，目前镍基本面未有明显改变，消息面扰动回落叠加宏观压制，镍价宽幅回落，但目前镍价逼近一体化高冰镍成本线，继续向下缺乏驱动，且消息端扰动有所增强，镍价下行阻力有所凸显。中长期产业过剩压制，边际有下移趋势。但目前宏观方面依旧存在支撑，镍价震荡区间或有小幅上移，下周镍价或在12-12.8万元/吨区间内宽幅震荡。

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