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镍周报（12.23-12.27）：估值修复推升镍价

2025-01-14 09:25:22 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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当周镍价低位上涨，主因是此前镍价宽幅回落影响，宏观利空情绪消化后，叠加精炼镍现货市场偏紧导致镍价逐步修复。不过随着镍价估值逐步回归，基本面过剩压力显现，周五镍价呈现回落态势。

基本面上，印尼镍矿价格短期未有变动，现实端镍矿整体宽松预期不改，1月印尼镍矿绝对价格有望持稳，但政策端扰动风险仍存，关注印尼镍矿政策变动。

精炼镍方面，周内镍价逐步回调，需求端整体成交尚可，金川资源逐步到货，现货紧缺问题有所缓解，升贴水宽幅回落。内外方面，LME休市但沪镍整体偏强，内外价差进一步收窄，出口利润回落背景下关注国内出口情况。

镍铁方面，周内镍铁成交价格持稳运行，下游不锈钢低位震荡，钢厂对原料采购节奏有所放缓，叠加钢厂减产增加，镍铁压力有所增加，但实际落地情况尚待观察。1-2月钢厂面临季节性减产，镍铁远期依旧存在压力，预计短期镍铁价格维持弱稳。

硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍疲弱持续，价格维持低位平稳。原料端中间品维持偏高系数。由于盐厂利润倒挂严重，目前挺价心态较强，但下游同样疲弱，供需双弱价格表现僵持。短期硫酸镍缺乏驱动，整体波动有限，价格维持成本定价。

综合来看，目前镍基本面尚无明显变化，矿端支撑之下镍价边际整体坚挺。短期镍价难有较大突破，价格上下均有压力，但政策端扰动仍存，价格维持震荡。中长期产业过剩压制，边际有下移趋势。但目前宏观方面依旧存在支撑，镍价震荡区间或有小幅上移，下周镍价或在12-12.8万元/吨区间内宽幅震荡。

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