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镍周报（24.12.30-25.1.3）：镍价回吐此前涨幅

2025-01-14 09:10:39 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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本周（24.12.30-25.1.3）镍价持续回落，主要受到宏观面和基本面的双重影响。宏观方面，美元指数震荡上涨压制大宗商品，镍价受此影响表现疲弱。基本面缺乏明显波动，但过剩格局持续压制价格，镍价宽幅回吐前期涨幅。

基本面上，印尼镍矿价格维持坚挺，1月印尼镍矿绝对价格有望持稳，但政策端扰动风险仍存。下一步要密切关注印尼镍矿政策变动，矿端支撑之下镍价边际维持坚挺。

精炼镍方面，周内镍价宽幅回落，年底清仓结账的贸易商新进资源尚未到货，但下游需求端整体一般，整体处于供需两弱，升贴水维持震荡。内外方面，内外价差持续收窄，住友资源进口窗口打开，LME镍库存转向垒库，国内持续出口背景下LME压力持续增加。

镍铁方面，周内镍铁价格持稳运行，下游不锈钢表现疲弱，但镍矿持稳背景下镍铁下跌空间有限，价格持稳运行。1-2月钢厂面临季节性减产，镍铁远期依旧存在压力，预计短期镍铁价格维持弱稳。

硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍疲弱持续，价格维持低位平稳。原料端中间品维持偏高系数。由于盐厂利润倒挂严重，目前挺价心态较强，但下游同样疲弱，供需双弱价格表现僵持。短期硫酸镍缺乏驱动，整体波动有限，价格维持成本定价。

综合来看，目前镍基本面尚无明显变化，矿端支撑之下镍价边际整体坚挺。短期镍价深跌后有成本线的支撑，价格继续下跌存在压力，价格维持震荡。中长期产业过剩压制，边际有下移趋势。但目前宏观方面依旧存在支撑，镍价震荡区间或有小幅上移，下周镍价或在12-12.8万元/吨区间内宽幅震荡。

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