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锡市场周报（2025年4月7日-4月11日）

2025-04-14 08:36:31 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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XI多重利空因素叠加锡价大幅回落

本周（4月7日-11日）锡价未能继续上冲而是掉头向下，并大幅回落。这主要源于宏观面及产业面的利空因素叠加，导致锡价大跌。但即便如此，因供给依然偏紧，锡价格基础未出现明显“崩塌”，当前锡价仍处于中等偏高水平。价格大幅下跌，明显吸引下方需求买盘，市场整体成交较为活跃。这是近期成交方面难有的一些亮色，需要各方共同维护这一局面。

宏观面因素，主要是美国政府发动“全球贸易战”，令投资者对全球经济增长预期较为悲观，压制全球资本市场风险资产价格大幅走低，锡期货价格也从较高位明显回落。产业面因素则是，来自于供给侧的冲击已经得到一定程度的消化，而需求侧并没有大的利好因素释放。两方面叠加，导致锡价格从近期高位大幅回落。

现货价格：本周末，锡锭均价约为254,250元/吨，较上周末均价低34,250元/吨，跌幅为11.87%。本周锡锭均价约为261,350元/吨，较上周均价低27,525元/吨，跌幅为9.53%。

期货价格：LME锡本周收于31,495美元/吨，较上周末收盘价跌3,510美元/吨（10.03%）。沪锡主力合约收于257,450元/吨，较上周末收盘价跌30,340元/吨（10.54%）。

锡价格大幅走低，已吸引各方买盘进场，这将推动锡价格回升。何况当市场充分消化宏观面的不利消息后，也将重新关注供给偏紧的基本面。据此，预期近期锡价有回升空间；但幅度不会很大，毕竟对供给偏紧的消息经过几轮传播后，也有一定的“审美疲劳”。综合来看，预计下周锡价格或能回升到26万元/吨上方。

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