铜市场周报（2025.4.7-4.11）

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜市场周报（2025.4.7-4.11）

2025-04-14 14:52:35 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势分析

现货价格波动
- 国内现货铜价：本周呈现探底回升态势。上海电解铜价格从4月7日的73770-75410元/吨（中间价74590元/吨）下跌至4月11日的74430-74670元/吨（中间价74550元/吨），跌幅约555元/吨，主要受铜价跌停开盘及下游逢低补库影响。
- 国际铜价：LME铜价从4月7日的8794.25美元/吨跌至4月11日的8105美元/吨，累计跌幅达14.09%；沪铜主力合约从73950元/吨跌至71320元/吨，跌幅14.4%，主要受美国关税政策冲击及市场避险情绪升温影响。
升贴水变化
- 上海市场现货升水先扬后抑，好铜升水从180-200元/吨回落至贴水区间，平水铜升水亦收窄至贴30-升0元/吨，反映市场对高价接受度下降。

二、核心影响因素

关税政策冲击
- 美国4月2日宣布对全球商品加征34%关税（中国商品税率达54%），并多次升级至125%，导致市场对供应链“去美化”加速的担忧。中国反制措施包括限制稀土出口和扩大东盟出口，加剧了铜价的短期波动。
- 美铜因前期囤货逻辑弱化，多头资金急速离场，COMEX铜期货单周跌幅14.09%，纽约与伦敦铜价溢价从1750美元/吨回落至1000美元/吨以下。
宏观经济数据
- 美国3月CPI同比降至2.4%，核心CPI降至2.8%，通胀压力缓解但仍高于美联储目标，市场对降息预期分歧加大，美元波动影响铜价。
- 中国3月CPI同比-0.1%，PPI同比-2.5%，显示内需疲软，但新能源车、光伏等产业政策支撑铜的长期需求。

三、供需格局

供应端
- 矿端紧张：国内铜精矿TC费用维持低位，智利、秘鲁铜矿复产推动全球供应回升，但电力基建不足仍限制产能释放。
- 库存去化：国内电解铜社会库存从30.02万吨降至28.67万吨，上海库存降幅显著（19.70万吨→18.16万吨），支撑铜价底部。
需求端
- 终端消费分化：空调、新能源车（一季度产量同比增34%）及光伏需求亮眼，但铜箔、铜杆等现货市场交易以刚需为主，高铜价抑制下游采购积极性。
- 再生铜替代：精铜杆与再生铜杆价差扩大，部分企业转向采购精铜原料，再生铜杆成交清淡。

四、市场情绪与后市展望

短期走势
- 铜价在超跌后展开修复性反弹，但关税政策不确定性及美联储利率政策仍压制市场情绪，预计短期维持震荡偏弱格局，沪铜主力支撑位70000元/吨，阻力位73000元/吨。
长期驱动
- 新能源产业（如人形机器人、电动车）和绿色基建投资将支撑铜的长期需求。标普全球预测2025年LME铜均价为9825美元/吨，但需警惕矿端增产和全球经济增长放缓风险。

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铜市场周报（2025.4.7-4.11）

一、价格走势分析

二、核心影响因素

三、供需格局

四、市场情绪与后市展望

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