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稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

铜市场周报（01.06-01.10）

2025-01-14 16:09:57 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势回顾

本周沪铜主力2502合约周五下午收于75270元/吨，周环比涨3.22%。本周沪铜盘面、现货升贴水均走强:国内政策暖风再起，“两新”资金将大幅增加，财政政策预期更积极;美服务业PMI、劳动力数据提升市场对美国的再通胀预期;沪铜盘面走强;国内现货可流通货源偏紧，升贴水走强。

二、宏观：美元冲高需求预期降温，宏观环境对铜价偏空

12月美国新增非农就业25.6万，大幅高于市场普遍预期的16.5万，新增非农就业超预期，且私有部门雇佣加速，联储降息阻力上升，债券收益率上移，且不排除市场降息预期将进一步下降。美联储12月会议纪要显示，官员担忧特朗普政策或冲击经济、推高失业率、阻碍抗通胀进程。此外，强势美元对铜价起到明显压制。中国CP|和PPI数据好于预期，彰显我国经济具有韧性。

三、供应

2025年1季度，铜精矿现货采购指导加工费TC/RC为25美元/吨及2.5美分/磅，较四季度明显下跌，加工费处于历史低位，全球铜精矿供应偏紧。12月我国电解铜产量或因冶炼厂复产及年未冲刺环比增9万吨，冶炼端存在一定供应扰动，产量或将下滑。

四、需求端

受春节假期影响，加工企业开工率不及预期，白色家电排产量也同比下滑，下游需求进入淡季，下游订单出现一定下滑。这意味着国内现货报价可能持续偏弱，且当前内外比价出现回落，结合铜价回涨走势，表明推涨力量主要来自于海外。

五、库存

本周LME库存重回降库模式，国内铜社会库存去库，与往年同期相比累库预期缓慢，现货市场到货较少。由于需求淡季，预计1月库存将累积。

六、行情预测

目前矿端加工费偏低，冶炼原料仍然趋紧的情况下，未来产量维持持续高位的难度或许也相对较大，需要粗废料的及时补充，供应端偏弱。需求端来看，临近春节，下游消费相对偏弱，而在这意味着国内现货报价可能持续偏弱，且当前内外比价出现回落，因此目前对于铜价利多以及利空的因素均存在，供需双弱，故铜价或维持相对震荡格局。

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