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锌周报（1.4 - 1.10）：锌精矿加工费喜提上调，港口却难现火爆成交

2025-01-16 09:38:02 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、行情走势总览

过去一周（1.4 - 1.10），锌市整体呈现震荡态势。国际市场上，伦锌价格波动下行，截至 1 月 10 日，较上周累计跌幅达 2.09%，收盘价定格在 2857 美元 / 吨。国内方面，沪锌主力合约亦难挽颓势，同期下滑 2.11%，收于 24145 元 / 吨。

在升贴水格局方面，LME 锌现货升贴水（0 - 3）出现显著变化，由上周的 - 28.31 美元 / 吨进一步扩大至 - 36.10 美元 / 吨，反映出海外现货市场相对期货的溢价缩窄态势。

二、供需动态剖析

供应端详情

原料加工费调整：国产锌精矿加工费迎来上涨契机，本周环比提升 200 元 / 吨，至 2150 元 / 金属吨；进口锌精矿加工费同样小幅上行，周涨幅 10 元 / 吨，达到 - 10 美元 / 干吨。这一变化暗示着矿端供应紧张局面在边际上有所缓解。
冶炼厂生产态势：回顾 12 月国内冶炼厂产量，实际出炉 51.7 万吨，与预估的 53 万吨存在一定缺口。步入 1 月，预计产量将环比温和增加 1 - 1.5 万吨。现阶段，多地冶炼厂原料库存随着进口矿陆续到货而逐步回补，但受冬季因素影响，国产矿供应出现季节性下滑.
镀锌行业：作为锌下游的重要支柱，镀锌企业开工率本周出现下滑，较上周减少 5%，当前开工率仅为 53.72%，主要归因于临近年关，下游订单减少以及部分企业提前安排休假。
压铸锌合金领域：与镀锌企业的低迷形成对比，压铸锌合金企业进入年底备库冲刺阶段，开工率顺势上扬，较上周提升 4.89%，达到 62.29%，企业积极备货以应对可能的年后需求高峰。
氧化锌板块：同样受益于备库需求，氧化锌企业开工率大幅攀升，较上周激增 11.41%，至 65.03%，行业活力显著增强。

三、库存全景扫描

截至 1 月 9 日，国内多地锌锭库存总量呈现下降趋势。综合七地库存数据来看，较上周同期减少 0.65 万吨，降至 5.8 万吨。从期货市场关联指标看，仓单库存较上周同期削减 377 吨，仅余 853 吨；国际市场上，LME 锌库存降幅更为明显，一周内减少 16250 吨，当前存量为 214075 吨。

四、市场深度解析

尽管矿端加工费呈现上行修复趋势，但受锌锭价格持续下跌拖累，冶炼行业仍深陷亏损泥沼，当前冶炼利润亏损额度高达 1600 元 / 吨，这极大地抑制了冶炼厂的扩产积极性。
现货市场方面，供应偏紧格局延续，虽下游企业因价格高位而普遍持观望、畏难态度，但现货升贴水依旧维持高位刚性，库存数据的持续下滑以及隔月价差的走阔，均表明市场供需博弈激烈。
综合考量当下消费淡季以及原料加工费上涨周期双重因素，锌价短期内难以突破前期高点，不过鉴于成本支撑与库存低位等因素，下行空间亦较为有限，预期后续将在一定区间内宽幅震荡。

五、投资策略指引

单边策略：鉴于市场多空因素交织，锌价走势不确定性较大，建议投资者采取中性策略，谨慎观望，避免盲目单边做多或做空。
套利策略：同样考虑到市场复杂多变，套利机会并不明朗，现阶段亦推荐中性策略，密切关注市场变化，伺机而动。

六、潜在风险预警

海外矿山及冶炼复产进度超预期，可能导致全球锌矿供应大幅增加，冲击市场供需平衡，引发锌价下行风险。
国内消费复苏步伐缓慢，不及市场预期，下游需求持续疲软，将使得锌价承压，不利于市场回暖。
宏观层面流动性变化异常，如货币政策收紧或超宽松调整，均可能对锌市资金面及价格走势产生意想不到的影响。

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