铅周报（2025.1.13-1.17）：价格震荡，供需结构现调整

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铅周报（2025.1.13-1.17）：价格震荡，供需结构现调整

2025-01-17 11:01:18 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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行情回顾

本周铅价整体呈现震荡偏弱的走势。1# 铅锭均价较上周环比下跌 1.20%，最终稳定在 16,500 元 / 吨。沪铅主力合约收盘价也出现了一定程度的下滑，环比下跌 0.51%，收于 16,600 元 / 吨。然而，伦铅收盘价（电子盘）却表现出相反的趋势，上涨了 3.12%，达到 1,981 美元 / 吨。这种国内外铅价走势的差异，主要受到不同市场供需结构以及宏观经济因素的影响。国内市场在需求端表现相对疲软，而国际市场则在全球经济复苏预期等因素的支撑下，铅价有所上涨。

原料端

原生铅原料：随着春节的临近，国内矿山陆续进入假期，提前停产放假。进入 1 月中下旬，矿贸易商对于远距离运输的业务已不再报价。多数炼厂的冬储工作基本结束，当前市场交投氛围较为平淡。从长期供应来看，2025 年上半年长单供应以及未来到港预期都处于偏低水平。目前，加工费报价尚未出现明显回调，这在一定程度上反映了原料市场的供应相对紧张局面。
再生铅原料：废电瓶市场方面，由于再生铅炼厂生产节奏不稳定，开开停停，但整体原料库存仍处于尚可状态。部分已停产的炼厂仍在进行采购活动。考虑到春节后废电瓶回收商的复工时间通常晚于炼厂，预计废电瓶价格在短期内易涨难跌。这种价格趋势将对再生铅的生产成本产生重要影响，进而影响再生铅的市场供应。

供给端

原生铅：前期进行检修的企业复产进度较为缓慢，导致供给增量未能达到市场预期。这一方面是由于检修过程中遇到了一些技术难题，延长了复产时间；另一方面，部分企业在复产前对设备进行了进一步的升级改造，也使得复产周期有所延长。供给增量的不足，使得原生铅市场在短期内供应相对紧张。
再生铅：随着安徽地区生产的逐步恢复，再生铅产量有所回升。然而，由于近期铅价回落，再生铅炼厂的利润空间受到挤压。在这种情况下，持货商为了保证自身利润，选择挺价出货。而下游采购商在采购时更倾向于原生铅，这使得再生铅的市场销售面临一定压力。

需求端

尽管本周铅价出现下跌，但下游生产企业按照惯例进行了一定程度的备库。然而，铅蓄电池企业及经销商在节前的备库情绪并不高涨。一方面，市场对于节后需求的预期较为谨慎，担心需求增长不及预期；另一方面，临近春节，物流运输即将停运，这也给企业的备库带来了一定的不便。本周成为经销商最后备库的关键时段，整体备库规模相对有限。

库存端

部分下游企业持续消耗社会库存，使得社会库存呈现去化趋势。然而，炼厂厂库却略有增加。这主要是因为下游需求增长不及预期，炼厂的产品销售速度放缓，导致库存积压。社会库存和厂库库存的反向变化，反映了当前铅市场供需结构的不平衡。

市场展望

随着春节的日益临近，下游企业的备库工作基本接近尾声，需求端将逐渐趋弱。目前，现货市场的流通量仍然相对偏紧，预计在节前库存难以出现较大幅度的增长。综合考虑以上因素，预计铅价在短期内将呈现窄幅震荡的走势，运行区间大概率维持在 16,200 - 17,000 元 / 吨。后续需持续关注再生铅生产的恢复情况以及下游企业在节后的备库动态，这些因素将对铅价的走势产生重要影响。

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铅周报（2025.1.13-1.17）：价格震荡，供需结构现调整

行情回顾

原料端

供给端

需求端

库存端

市场展望

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