基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

锌周报（2025.1.13-1.17）：供需博弈下价格震荡，春节临近前路几何

2025-01-17 11:45:53 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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价格走势

期货市场：沪锌主力合约在本周呈现震荡下行态势。1 月 13 日沪锌主力合约收报 24,290 元 / 吨，较前交易日涨 145 元 / 吨，涨幅为 0.6%。1 月 15 日沪锌主力合约开于 24,155 元 / 吨，收于 23,595 元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌 575 元 / 吨。

现货市场：上海、广东、天津等地锌锭现货价格均出现不同程度的下跌。如 1 月 16 日，上海 0# 锌锭现货价格报价 24,130 元 / 吨，较上一交易日下跌；佛山市场 0# 普通电解锌现货对沪锌 2503 合约升水 260 元 / 吨，报价 23,950 元 / 吨，较上一交易日下跌 500 元 / 吨。

供需情况

供应端：

矿端：矿端紧缺的情况进一步缓解，在冶炼厂原料库存上涨到常规 27 天以上的位置后，港口锌精矿库存也持续增加至 37 万吨水平，加工费再度出现上涨，国产矿加工费反弹 200 元 / 金属吨至 2,150 元 / 金属吨，进口矿加工费反弹 10 美元 / 干吨至 - 10 美元 / 干吨。

冶炼产量：12 月精炼锌产量 52 万吨左右，增量不及预期，1 月预计产量持续回升至 53.5 万吨左右。

需求端：下游行业的消费情况有所分化，镀锌行业因北方中小企业逐步放假，开工进一步下降 5 个百分点；压铸和氧化锌因主流企业准备进入放假阶段，在放假之前积极生产储备成品库存，整体开工反而出现明显上涨，压铸锌合金开工率上涨 4.89 个百分点，氧化锌开工率上涨 11.41 个百分点。

库存情况

国内锌锭到货仍较少，下游逢低采买社库下滑，但随着进口窗口开启，进口货源将带来一定供给补充。截至 1 月 16 日，七地锌锭库存总量为 5.88 万吨，较 1 月 9 日增加 0.08 万吨，较 1 月 13 日降低 0.22 万吨，其中上海和天津地区库存录减，广东地区库存增长。

市场分析与展望

宏观方面，国内处于政策空窗期，美国 12 月非农就业数据超预期，美元强势运行，施压有色板块。基本面上，随着春节临近，下游企业将于本周陆续开始放假，需求预计进一步下滑，此外，炼厂库存充足，TC 持续回升，原料端对锌价支撑走弱，宏观方面无较大扰动下，预计短期锌价持续承压偏弱整理，运行区间 23,500-24,500 元 / 吨。

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基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

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