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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

铅周报（2025.1.13-1.19）：上周供需双弱，价格震荡前行

2025-01-20 12:02:09 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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价格走势

上周铅价整体呈现震荡态势，1# 铅锭均价在 16,500 元 / 吨左右。截至周五沪铅指数收涨 0.51% 至 16,597 元 / 吨，单边交易总持仓 8.12 万手；伦铅 3S 较前日同期涨 10.5 至 1951.5 美元 / 吨，总持仓 14.44 万手。

供应情况

原生铅：原生铅冶炼厂开工率 58.23%，较前一周微降 0.49 个百分点。河南生产稳定，开工率不变；湖南某厂部分复产，另两家节后有望恢复；云南某厂停产检修致减量，其他稳定；广西产量微降，江西未恢复，广东粗铅恢复且下周将提产。
再生铅：再生铅四省周度开工率为 44.65%，较前一周增加 2.21 个百分点。安徽地区大型炼厂复产后小幅提产，河南地区部分炼厂产量增加，带动地区开工率上升。江苏地区个别大型冶炼企业过年期间有不停产预期，目前产量仍稳定；本周内蒙古地区新增停产检修炼厂，复产日期待定。

需求情况

五省铅蓄电池企业周度综合开工率 72.27%，较前一周环比降 2.28 个百分点。临近春节假期，多数企业因外地工人返乡，前端生产线工人陆续停工，后端下周也将全停，导致开工率下降。铅蓄电池市场终端消费表现平淡，经销商多以消化库存为主，企业订单普遍有所下滑。

库存情况

暂无确切的整体库存变动数据，但部分下游持续消耗社会库存，社库去化，而炼厂厂库略有增加。

市场情绪及预测

临近农历年底，当下基本呈现供需双弱格局，铅价预计仍会在 16,000 元 / 吨 - 16,950 元 / 吨间震荡。近期贵金属及铜、油偏强运行，或带动铅价短线反弹，但中期来看单边下行风险仍然较高。由于进口矿暂无到港预期叠加俄罗斯地区贸易结算等问题，多家冶炼厂表示 2025 年铅精矿供应仍偏紧张，节后亦无上调预期。

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