铝周报（2025.1.27-2.8）：开启新春铝市的深度洞察

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铝周报（2025.1.27-2.8）：开启新春铝市的深度洞察

2025-02-13 16:14:57 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、行情回顾

本周铝市场价格波动较为明显。1 月 27 日，国内铝价整体呈现窄幅调整态势，氧化铝期现走势继续分歧，现货延续下调、期货止跌转暖、现货升水持续收窄；电解铝窄幅调整，现货贴水收窄。而节后归来，沪铝震荡偏强，2 月 7 日主力收至 20600 元 / 吨，周度涨幅 1.8% 。这主要得益于节后下游加工端复工虽呈现差异化，但随着元宵节前后开启返工潮以及旺季临近的加持，市场对出货回升带动铝价止跌回暖抱有预期。

二、供应端情况

氧化铝：节后首周氧化铝期货震荡走弱，2 月 7 日主力收至 3481 元 / 吨，周度跌幅 4.7%。春节期间，部分氧化铝企业生产正常，不过由于节日因素，物流运输受到一定限制，导致部分地区氧化铝发货量有所减少。节后随着物流逐渐恢复正常，氧化铝供应有望逐步增加。
电解铝：大部分铝水棒厂家春节期间依旧正常生产，而再生铝棒厂情况有所不同。部分再生铝棒生产企业节后复产时间在 2 月 4 日，部分集中在 2 月 7 - 13 日，还有大部分企业复产时间视市场行情待定。因节前市场需求提前萎靡，企业提前放假居多，再生铝棒库存积压较多。

三、需求端情况

节前下游新接订单有限，铝棒库存备货量相对有限。节后下游铝型材企业从正月初七开始陆续复工复产，但截至目前仍有部分加工企业处于半休市状态。当前铝价处于高位，这使得下游企业成本压力较大，需求跟进不足，下游采买积极性欠缺。不过，得益于工业型材特别是汽车板块厂家的提前复工，近一周国内铝型材行业整体开工率达到 61.3%，较前期呈现显著回升态势，对铝市场需求有一定的拉动作用。

四、库存情况

截至 2 月 10 日，国内铝库存（铝锭 + 铝棒）总量为 104.25 万吨，较节后第一日（2 月 5 日）增加 9 万吨（增幅 9.4%），较节前（1 月 27 日）增加 31.3 万吨。其中铝棒库存从 29.15 万吨增至 31.15 万吨，增加 2 万吨。2 月 11 日，广东铝棒库存 13.64 万吨，无锡铝棒库存 6.45 万吨，共计减少 0.01 万吨。春节期间，由于下游企业放假，需求停滞，铝库存持续累积。节后随着部分企业复工，库存累积速度有所放缓，甚至在个别地区出现了库存微降的情况。

五、后市展望

当前铝市场处于 “低库存、弱需求、高政策敏感性” 的博弈阶段。一方面，国内库存累库速度与历史同期相比仍较温和，且随着下游复工推进，需求有逐步释放的预期；另一方面，近期成本端支撑减弱和海外政策扰动，如美国宣布将对进口钢铁和铝加征 25% 的新关税，可能导致全球贸易流向调整，加剧期铝价格震荡。预计 2 月沪铝主力合约短期参考区间为 20300 - 20900 元 / 吨，铝价短期或维持震荡回落格局。建议市场参与者密切关注下游复工进度、电解铝成本变化及宏观政策落地后的市场反应，合理调整采购和销售策略。

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铝周报（2025.1.27-2.8）：开启新春铝市的深度洞察

一、行情回顾

二、供应端情况

三、需求端情况

四、库存情况

五、后市展望

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