镓市场周报（2025.2.8-2.14）：镓价弱势难改政策托底与需求回暖酝酿变数

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

镓市场周报（2025.2.8-2.14）：镓价弱势难改政策托底与需求回暖酝酿变数

2025-02-19 09:01:56 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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价格走势：跌幅收窄但下行通道未改

截至2025年2月14日，国内金属镓（≥99.99%）主流报价为1775元/千克，较前一周下跌20元/千克，连续三周累计跌幅达5.4%。分区域看：

华东市场：现货报价1750-1800元/千克，部分贸易商低价抛售库存，成交价下探至1730元/千克。
华南市场：因电子产业集中，需求略强于华东，报价1780-1820元/千克，但实际成交稀少。

与历史同期对比，当前价格较2024年同期（1950元/千克）下降9%，创近三年春节后最低水平，凸显市场信心不足。

市场冷清成因：供需矛盾深化

需求端“冰封”
- 半导体行业：据SEMI数据，2024年四季度全球半导体设备出货量同比下滑12%，国内晶圆厂扩产节奏放缓，镓（用于氮化镓衬底）采购量缩减。
- 光通信领域：头部企业如中际旭创、光迅科技2024年财报显示，光模块库存周转天数同比增加15%，短期补库需求疲弱。
- 春节后复工延迟：江苏、广东等地部分加工企业复工率仅60%-70%，且以消化节前备货为主，新订单跟进不足。
供应端压力隐现
- 产量维持高位：2024年中国金属镓产量约550吨，同比增长8%，主要来自山西、河南等地新增产能释放。
- 社会库存高企：2月中旬镓社会库存达85吨，环比增加12%，逼近2023年库存峰值。

潜在变数：多空博弈加剧

政策托底预期升温
- 央行2月10日宣布新增5000亿元PSL（抵押补充贷款）额度，重点支持“半导体材料”等战略性产业，或间接缓解镓企资金链压力。
- 工信部拟于3月启动《新材料产业发展指南（2026-2030）》修订，氮化镓等化合物半导体材料或获更高政策倾斜。
产业链结构性机会
- 国产替代加速：华为旗下哈勃投资近期参股云南镓业，布局高纯镓产能，长期或重塑供应链格局。
- 新兴需求萌芽：小米、蔚来等车企加速800V高压平台车型量产，碳化硅（SiC）器件中镓用量较传统方案提升30%，但大规模放量需至2026年。
国际市场价格传导
- 欧洲战略小金属报价（2月14日）为265美元/千克（约合1820元/千克），较国内溢价2.5%，若价差持续扩大或刺激出口，缓解国内过剩压力。

后市展望：弱现实与强预期的拉锯战

短期（1-2个月）：下游复工节奏及3月“两会”政策力度是核心变量。若需求复苏弱于预期，镓价或下探1700元/千克心理关口。
中期（6个月）：半导体行业周期拐点（据Gartner预测2025Q3全球半导体销售额同比转正）及新能源需求起量，或推动镓价反弹至1850-1900元/千克区间。

策略建议：

生产企业：可逢低签订长单，锁定加工利润；
贸易商：关注1750元/千克下方投机性囤货机会；
下游企业：分批采购，避免集中补库推高成本。

风险提示：美联储加息超预期、地缘政治冲突加剧或压制全球电子产业链复苏。

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镓市场周报（2025.2.8-2.14）：镓价弱势难改 政策托底与需求回暖酝酿变数

价格走势：跌幅收窄但下行通道未改

市场冷清成因：供需矛盾深化

潜在变数：多空博弈加剧

后市展望：弱现实与强预期的拉锯战

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镓市场周报（2025.2.8-2.14）：镓价弱势难改政策托底与需求回暖酝酿变数