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稀土周报（2025.2.17 - 2.21）：价格、供需与后市洞察

2025-02-24 08:43:16 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势

本周稀土市场价格波动明显。2 月 20 日，氧化镨钕报价在每吨 39.6 万元至 40 万元区间。本周前期，受矿产供应紧张、持货商惜售情绪等因素影响，价格呈上涨趋势；但因下游接受程度有限，目前价格在该区间僵持不下。氧化镝价格涨至每吨 161 万元至 162 万元，较上周有所上扬，主要得益于供应端收缩以及下游对高性能磁性材料需求的稳定支撑。氧化铽价格上调至 559 万元 / 吨至 561 万元 / 吨，在本周稳步上涨，其稀缺性和在高端领域的广泛应用维持了价格的坚挺。

从更广泛的稀土产品来看，氧化镨价格处于 44.5 万元 - 45.1 万元 / 吨，较之前有小幅度下滑；氧化钕价格为 43.8 万元 - 44.2 万元 / 吨，同样有细微价格变动。在稀土金属方面，金属镨价格 58 万元 - 58.4 万元 / 吨，金属钕价格 54.5 万元 - 55 万元 / 吨，均有一定程度的价格调整。部分稀土产品如碳酸稀土、氯化稀土片等价格则出现下跌，碳酸稀土价格在 35100 - 35200 元 / 吨，较之前下降 350 元 / 吨，跌幅 0.99% 。

二、供需分析

1. 供应端：当前矿产供应紧张问题突出，部分原矿分离企业因原材料采购困难已减产或停产。一方面，国内对稀土资源管控加强，部分地区矿山开采受限，导致原矿供应减少；另一方面，进口矿收缩，进一步加剧供应紧张局面，使得持货商对稀土原材料惜售情绪加剧，推动价格上涨。

2. 需求端：下游需求呈现分化态势。传统领域如钢铁、玻璃等行业对稀土需求保持相对稳定，但增长幅度有限。而新兴领域如新能源汽车、人形机器人、低空经济等发展迅猛，对稀土尤其是高性能钕铁硼磁材的需求大幅增加。2025 年被视为人形机器人量产元年，高性能钕铁硼作为机器人关节电机的核心材料，单台用量预计达 2kg - 4kg，为稀土市场打开新的需求空间。智能驾驶驱动下新能源汽车领域磁材需求也有望保持高速增长。

三、行业动态

1. 随着《稀土管理条例》的实施，行业秩序进一步规范健康发展。该条例对稀土的开采、生产、流通等环节进行严格规范，淘汰部分不符合标准的小作坊和违规企业，使得市场竞争更加有序，有利于行业长期稳定发展。

2. 部分稀土企业积极布局新兴领域。如江西金力永磁科技股份有限公司正积极配合世界知名客户的人形机器人用磁组件的研发，并且陆续有小批量的交付，提前抢占新兴市场份额。

四、后市展望

进入 2025 年，多种因素交织影响稀土市场走向。从供应角度看，尽管当前矿产供应紧张，但随着相关政策逐步落实以及企业对新资源的勘探开发，供应紧张局面未来有望得到一定缓解。不过短期内，持货商惜售情绪以及进口矿收缩仍将制约供应。

在需求端，新兴产业蓬勃发展将持续为稀土市场注入强劲动力。新能源汽车、人形机器人、低空经济等领域快速扩张，对稀土需求预计将保持高速增长，有力支撑稀土价格。然而，传统行业需求相对平稳以及下游企业对价格的接受程度，也将对市场产生影响。

综合来看，预计未来一段时间内，稀土价格有望在供需关系动态调整下逐步回归合理区间。但市场仍存在不确定性，需密切关注政策变化、原材料供应情况以及下游需求发展态势。

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稀土周报（2025.2.17 - 2.21）：价格、供需与后市洞察

一、价格走势

二、供需分析

三、行业动态

四、后市展望

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