钴市场周报（2.24-2.28）

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

钴市场周报（2.24-2.28）

2025-03-03 11:50:49 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、价格走势：刚果（金）出口禁令引发钴价暴涨

1、电解钴价格跳涨

受刚果（金）暂停钴出口四个月政策影响，电解钴价格快速反弹。2月25日，现货报价单日跳涨4000元/吨，均价达16.65万元/吨（涨幅2.46%）。随后几日持续上涨，至2月28日，金川、华友等品牌电解钴片价格涨至17.1万-20.2万元/吨，单日最高涨幅达9500元/吨。欧洲市场同步上涨，标准级钴价升至9.75-11美元/磅（较上周上涨4.3%），合金级钴价达12.5-14.2美元/磅。

2、钴盐价格异动

硫酸钴报价从2.55-2.65万元/吨跃升至2.8-3万元/吨（部分超3万元），氯化钴均价上涨至3.5-3.7万元/吨。海外中间品价格系数升至59.5%-60.5%，对应金属成本约5.8美元/磅。

3、价差扩大与市场暂停

电解钴与硫酸钴逆价差扩大至3.36万元/金属吨，因原料端刺激导致电钴涨幅更快。多数冶炼厂暂停报价，市场进入“有价无市”状态。

二、供应端

1、政策冲击与库存缓冲

刚果（金）宣布暂停钴出口四个月，直接影响全球70%的钴原料供应。目前国内及马来西亚港口库存约4-5万金属吨（相当于3-4个月需求），但若禁令严格执行，二季度末可能面临短缺风险。

2、冶炼厂策略调整

国内冶炼厂以执行长单为主，暂停散单报盘，部分企业加速布局印尼湿法冶炼项目（如华友钴业年产1.5万吨钴项目）。海外矿企暂停报价，中间品成交锐减，市场进入博弈阶段。

三、需求端

1、三元电池需求低迷

三元前驱体排产环比下降，磷酸铁锂电池市场份额持续挤压，新能源车领域钴需求疲软。2月钴酸锂排产亦因消费电子淡季下滑，但远期成本支撑增强。

2、合金领域短期支撑

合金级钴价受情绪面提振，询盘量增加，但实际成交仍以长协为主，散单采购谨慎。

四、产业链影响：短期阵痛与长期转型

1、成本传导压力

钴价上涨或使三元锂电池成本增加10%-20%，延缓新能源车降价趋势，甚至触发车企提价。

2、技术替代加速

低钴/无钴电池（如磷酸铁锂、固态电池）研发提速，长期或削弱钴需求。同时，再生钴回收占比不足10%，政策或推动循环利用发展。

3、资源布局多元化

企业寻求澳大利亚、加拿大等替代钴源，但短期内增量有限（合计占全球产量不足20%）。中资企业在刚果（金）本地冶炼产能建设提速，以规避出口限制。

五、后市展望

1、短期内，刚果（金）政策不确定性和库存消耗支撑钴价高位震荡，但需警惕恐慌性囤货后的抛压。

2、中期来看，若出口禁令解除，过剩压力可能重现。若持续，钴价或突破20万元/吨，但受制于需求端替代和技术转型，上行空间有限。

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钴市场周报（2.24-2.28）

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