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2024 年中国锌锭市场半年报

2025-01-14 11:10:49 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、上半年中国精炼锌价格走势剖析

2024 年上半年，中国精炼锌价格轨迹起伏。年初，受春节假期临近影响，下游需求收缩，冶炼厂正常生产下供需失衡，锌价震荡下行。步入 2 月下旬，形势逆转，锌价开启上扬通道，5 月末攀至年内峰值，5 月 30 日，全国 0# 锌锭价格触及 25154 元 / 吨。此轮涨势，根源在于供应端锌矿紧张，冶炼厂减产预期发酵，同时资金多头踊跃、美联储降息预期升温、国内利好政策频出，多因素共振推高锌价。然而，6 月风云突变，需求疲弱难撑高价，宏观环境不佳，锌价回调，至 6 月 27 日，全国 0# 锌锭价格滑落至 24192 元 / 吨。

区域市场均价亦有表现，据相关数据：上海市场均价 22181 元 / 吨，环比涨 4.82%，同比升 0.18%；天津市场均价 22207 元 / 吨，环比增 4.90%，同比涨 0.47%；佛山市场均价 22177 元 / 吨，环比上扬 5.12%，同比升 0.28%。

二、上半年中国精炼锌升贴水态势洞察

相关数据揭示，2024 年上半年，上海市场升贴水峰值 300 元 / 吨，较 2023 年下半年的 420 元 / 吨环比下滑 28.57%，较 2023 年上半年的 470 元 / 吨同比降低 36.17%；天津市场升贴水峰值 150 元 / 吨，对比 2023 年下半年 530 元 / 吨环比锐减 71.70%，相较于 2023 年上半年 305 元 / 吨同比下降 50.82%；佛山市场升贴水峰值 265 元 / 吨，相较 2023 年老鸭头，且库存下行拐点迟至 5 月才现，滞后正常年份 2 个月。期货市场锌库存亦不容小觑，截止 6 月 26 日达 24 万吨，去年同期仅 7.9 万吨，且去化缓慢。高库存映射需求疲态，升贴水佐证无疑。2 月底后，三地锌锭现货多贴水，6 月价格下行方使贴水收窄，佛山甚至现升水。佛山因库存低位，锌价受情绪左右，升水波动剧烈。

三、中国精炼锌原料全景解读

2024 上半年，锌精矿供应紧张成常态，加工费下行。北方地区加工费降至 2300 - 2500 元 / 金属吨，南方地区滑落至 1900 - 2100 元 / 金属吨，且短期内难缓解，加工费料将低位徘徊。进口 TC 年初以来持续探底，当前已至 10 - 20 美元 / 干吨，部分报价负数，国内冶炼厂承压。

锌精矿供需失衡，市场货源紧俏。1 - 5 月，统计 130 家样本企业产量 123.6 万吨，同比缩量 3 万吨，跌幅 2.33%。下半年，国内新投矿山爬坡、复产矿山发力，四季度供应或微增。

进口矿方面，上半年多依赖长单。1 - 5 月累计进口量 144.56 万吨，同比下滑 23.41%。6 月虽因比值优化进口窗开启，有少量成交，但船期掣肘，难补国内缺口，供应紧张格局难破。后续进口矿到货动态，关乎市场走向。

三季度消费淡季，部分炼厂检修，采购热情不减。矿山新增产能存变数，预计原料市场供应紧张延续，加工费低位维稳。

四、中国精炼锌生产动态追踪

相关数据显示，2024 年 1 - 5 月中国精炼锌产量 306.7 万吨，同比增长 5.72%。53 家锌冶炼厂产量数据表明，2024 年上半年锌锭产量 284.22 万吨，较 2023 年下半年 292.75 万吨环比下滑 2.91%，与 2023 年上半年 284.301 万吨基本持平，同比微降 0.03%。预计 7 月起，部分冶炼厂检修减产，供应趋紧。

五、中国精炼锌进口形势研判

海关总署数据表明，2024 年 1 - 5 月中国精炼锌进口量 18.71 万吨，同比飙升 253.42%，相较 2021 年亦增长 301.19%，上半年呈前低后高态势。成因如下：

国内锌精矿开采减量、炼厂检修停产频现，供应短缺催生进口需求；

利好政策落地、制造业 PMI 上扬，国内经济向好，企业扩产拉动精炼锌需求，驱动进口；

一季度国内锌价低位，进口少；二季度锌价飞涨，国际价差诱人，进口商逐利，进口激增。

展望下半年，若国内矿场复产提速，供应自给增强，进口或受抑制；反之，若需求增速超供应恢复，进口将增。国际锌市供需、价格波动亦影响进口决策。若国际锌价亲民，进口成本可控，进口需求或升；若高价当道，国内供应优先，进口下滑。若国内经济强劲、下游产业扩张，进口量有望水涨船高。综合预计，下半年精炼锌进口量较上半年小幅攀升。

六、中国精炼锌社会及保税库存扫描

相关统计显示，2024 年锌锭社会库存低位运行，截止 6 月 29 日为 17.26 万吨。峰值出现在 4 月，达 21.09 万吨，较 2023 年 3 月初峰值 17.66 万吨同比增长 19.42%。年初起，库存累库至 4 月底，锌价暴跌引发下游补库，社库回落，后锌价反弹，去库放缓。消费端疲软，上半年锌锭供应前期偏强、后期转弱。

七、下半年中国精炼锌前景展望

短期内，锌矿供应紧、加工费低位、社会库存下行态势难改，锌价下行空间受限。预计下半年锌价震荡偏强，上涨动力聚焦两处：一是三季度冶炼厂检修，关乎矿端 - 冶炼平衡。若减产落地，冶炼端将为后续价格上扬蓄力，四季度全球锌矿供应或边际改善，加工费有望迎来拐点；二是消费复苏成色。特别国债护航基建，下半年新增专项债加速发行，实物量落地支撑锌需求。以旧换新、强劲出口利好下，三季度汽车、家电产业有望蓬勃，然四季度美国补库、大选关税变数，出口回落风险需盯防。总体而言，2024 年锌锭供应或小幅过剩，在冶炼厂减产与需求恢复双重作用下，下半年社库将逐步消耗。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001476s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001452s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001460s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001474s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001367s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001381s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001383s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001385s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000401s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000363s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000366s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000468s ]