2025年2月电解铜市场报告：价格高位震荡，累库放缓下的供需博弈

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年2月电解铜市场报告：价格高位震荡，累库放缓下的供需博弈

2025-03-25 09:08:59 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、价格走势

1. 国际与国内期货价格

LME三月期铜：2月均价为9400美元/吨，环比上涨290美元/吨，涨幅3.18%。

沪铜主力合约：2月均价为77040元/吨，环比上涨2000元/吨，涨幅2.67%。

现货市场：1#电解铜现货均价为76830元/吨，环比上涨1820元/吨，涨幅2.43%。

2. 区域升贴水

上海和广东地区升贴水环比走弱，显示现货市场供应压力增加，但期货价格受宏观预期支撑保持强势。

二、库存动态

1. 国内社会库存

截至2月27日，电解铜社会库存达37.74万吨，较节前（1月27日）增加21.68万吨，累库速度逐步放缓。

累库主因：春节后冶炼厂发货增加，但下游复工缓慢导致提货不足。

2. 保税区库存

保税区库存增至4.97万吨（1月为1.84万吨），因进口亏损扩大（最大亏损达1470元/吨），冶炼厂增加出口。

三、供应与产量

1. 国内产量

2025年1月产量为105.78万吨，预计2月产量102.66万吨，环比减少2.95%，主因春节假期及部分冶炼厂检修。

长期趋势：1-2月累计产量预计同比增加6.56%，显示产能扩张。

2. 进口与出口

进口量受比价亏损抑制，2月进口窗口关闭，部分冶炼厂转向出口；出口量预计3月进一步增加。

四、市场需求与消费

1. 下游消费

节后复工缓慢，铜杆、铜管等加工企业产能利用率低于预期，现货成交偏弱。

高铜价抑制采购意愿，部分企业转向再生铜替代。

2. 宏观与政策

美联储降息预期波动及海外地缘局势（如俄乌冲突）对铜价形成阶段性扰动。

五、未来展望（2025年3月）

库存趋势：3月冶炼厂检修增加，叠加进口减少，社会库存或开启去库周期，预计降至20万吨左右。

价格预测：沪铜主力合约或维持高位震荡，区间76000-80900元/吨，需关注下游消费验证及海外政策变动。

风险提示：铜比价修复进度、海外铜矿供应扰动及国内重大项目开工节奏。

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2025年2月电解铜市场报告：价格高位震荡，累库放缓下的供需博弈

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