2024 - 2025 年锌市场全景洞察

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2024 - 2025 年锌市场全景洞察

2025-01-14 09:27:15 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、2024 年锌市复盘

价格走势亮点：2024 年锌市大放异彩，年初锌价短暂整固后便开启上扬之旅，二季度一鼓作气触及年度高点 3185 美元 / 吨，年内价格振幅高达 40%，市场活跃度可见一斑。
供需结构剖析：尽管国内供应端大幅减产，试图为市场平衡助力，然而需求端同步下滑，使得去库存进程步履蹒跚，进口窗口也未能如愿敞开。与此同时，LME 锌库存结构的动态变化如蝴蝶振翅，持续扰动着比价波动，为市场增添诸多变数。

二、2025 年锌市展望

市场供需转型：展望 2025 年，锌市场将踏上关键转型之路，逐步从严重短缺向资源平衡乃至过剩过渡。海外锌矿预计新增约 200 万吨产能，其中多数有望转化为氧化铝产量，不过矿端紧俏局面上半年仍难缓解，犹如黎明前的黑暗。所幸产业链矿库存有望抬升，后续矿端能否宽松，取决于海外增量能否超预期落地，以及国内矿下半年能否重振旗鼓。
供应环节详析：冶炼环节已历经深度减产 “洗礼”，国内炼厂几近降无可降，海外冶炼减产则相对温和。预计 2025 年全球锌矿增量在 60 万 - 70 万吨（含 OZ）区间。国内凭借较强的冶炼调节能力，在原料趋于宽松时，有望率先实现冶炼产能复苏，重回增长轨道。
需求维度解读：2025 年需求以弱复苏为主旋律，海外市场受益于低基数与贸易摩擦缓和，需求修复步伐略快于国内。反观国内，房地产市场的疲软如阴霾笼罩，抵消基建等领域增幅，整体需求难现强劲反弹，复苏之路崎岖坎坷。
价格走势预测：锌价方面，2025 年高位时空头配置颇具吸引力，但需静待利润传导顺畅，且冶炼产量稳步回升，方能使锌成为理想空头标的。预计伦锌核心运行区间锁定在 2700 - 3700 美元 / 吨，沪锌主力合约则在 23000 - 29000 元 / 吨，价格波动幅度加剧，市场挑战与机遇并存。

三、投资策略与风险警示

投资策略指引：基于低库存逻辑，二季度两市基差有望走高，投资者可适当关注，但鉴于市场复杂性，跨市反套操作风险颇高，不建议轻易涉足。
风险因素聚焦：需重点关注两大风险变量：其一，锌矿达产若提前兑现，将打破供应节奏，冲击市场平衡；其二，消费环节一旦出现超预期塌陷，需求端 “塌方” 将引发连锁反应，拖累锌市整体表现。

综上所述，2025 年锌市场供需两端将边际改善，矿石与下游均处于低库存状态。投资者与从业者需洞悉市场脉搏，灵活应变，方能在锌市浪潮中稳健前行。

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2024 - 2025 年锌市场全景洞察

一、2024 年锌市复盘

二、2025 年锌市展望

三、投资策略与风险警示

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