4543万吨电解铝合规产能指标的由来

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

4543万吨电解铝合规产能指标的由来

2025-01-14 09:56:50 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

分享到：

打印

复制链接

从2002年国家计委发文制止电解铝产能盲目建设开始，此后十五年间，国内对电解铝行业进行了六轮产能调控，均以失败告终。一直到2017年，通过清理整顿电解铝行业违法违规项目专项行动，落实了2015年1494号文的要求，行业产能无序扩张的势头才止住。自此确认了电解铝行业合规产能总计4543万吨，主要来源于以下几部分：

①2014年-2016年工信部公布的三批“符合《铝行业规范条件》企业名单”，共计3000万吨左右产能；

②2011年发改委批准的广西百色生态型铝产业示范基地200多万吨产能；

③鲁甸地震灾后重建特批70万吨指标（云铝昭通项目）；

④2004年之前全国已建成的产能，大概800多万吨；

⑤2011-2015年工信部公示的200多万吨淘汰产能。电解铝行业的指标体系较为明确，在此基础上建立起的产能置换交易，也被业内普遍认可且有效执行。根据有色金属工业协会的统计，电解铝企业通过兼并重组和指标交易等市场化法制化方式，完成了近1300万吨电解铝产能的退出和转移。

对比钢铁行业，电解铝行业产能约束性更强。钢铁行业和电解铝行业同为2013年国发〔2013〕41号文认定的产能严重过剩行业，也都适用于2015年工信部印发的《部分产能严重过剩行业产能置换实施办法》，但钢铁行业产能置换在2020年1月首次叫停，2021年修订后，2024年8月再次被叫停（工信厅原函﹝2024﹞327号）。

我们认为是生产工艺和设备特性导致的。电解铝的生产设备是电解槽，无论国内外，还是国内各企业之间，电解槽主体结构几乎一模一样，又因为铝电解过程是电化学过程，设备的产能和产量高度匹配，生产弹性极小。一般的测算过程是，铝的电化学当量0.3356g/A·h，以一台500KA的电解槽为例，年产量就是0.3356*24小时*365天*92%*500KA/1000=1352吨/年，其中92%是铝电解电流效率。以新疆神火为例，新疆神火拥有336台400KA电解槽和332台500KA电解槽，工信部认定的产能是80万吨，按照以上测算方法，年产能就是80万吨左右，公司实际每年产量也是这个数字，几乎没有操作空间。

但是钢铁产能不同，生铁产能一般认定高炉的炉容，但同一炉容有备案、底单、设计等不同产能口径，即产能认定标准不同，增加了产能管理的复杂性和难度。导致了虽有减量置换政策、粗钢平控政策，但2020年以来生铁产量、粗钢产量没有明显的下跌趋势，2023年的高炉炼铁产能、转炉炼钢产能、电炉炼钢产能同比均有增长。

免责声明
北方有色网提供的信息仅供参考，不作为决策建议，客户需自主判断决策，并自行承担相关后果。本报告版权归北方有色网所有，仅限客户自身使用。如需引用，须联系申请授权；未经书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式传播、发布、篡改本报告。北方有色网保留追究任何侵权行为法律责任的权利。

基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/public/index.php ( 0.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/start.php ( 0.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/base.php ( 2.60 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Loader.php ( 21.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/composer/autoload_static.php ( 3.95 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/symfony/polyfill-mbstring/bootstrap.php ( 8.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/ezyang/htmlpurifier/library/HTMLPurifier.composer.php ( 0.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/topthink/think-captcha/src/helper.php ( 1.94 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Route.php ( 60.23 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Config.php ( 6.38 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Validate.php ( 41.63 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Error.php ( 3.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/convention.php ( 10.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/App.php ( 21.51 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Request.php ( 49.78 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/config.php ( 10.17 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/database.php ( 1.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Hook.php ( 4.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/tags.php ( 0.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common.php ( 37.25 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Env.php ( 1.21 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/helper.php ( 17.30 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Lang.php ( 7.41 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Log.php ( 6.05 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/lang/zh-cn.php ( 11.81 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/route.php ( 4.08 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/News.php ( 30.40 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/Base.php ( 3.86 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Controller.php ( 6.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/traits/controller/Jump.php ( 4.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/View.php ( 6.77 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/view/driver/Think.php ( 5.64 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Template.php ( 44.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/template/driver/File.php ( 2.24 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/library/RedisUtil.php ( 0.83 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Cache.php ( 6.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/driver/Redis.php ( 5.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/Driver.php ( 5.98 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Para.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Model.php ( 69.14 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Db.php ( 6.67 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/connector/Mysql.php ( 3.89 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Connection.php ( 29.97 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Query.php ( 96.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/builder/Mysql.php ( 4.53 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Builder.php ( 31.55 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Debug.php ( 7.13 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/News.php ( 3.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Cate.php ( 0.59 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Admin.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/NewsConst.php ( 0.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/IndexCate.php ( 0.45 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CommonConst.php ( 0.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/runtime/temp/ae754a079b49dad486f0fa457bc10d5b.php ( 139.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CacheConst.php ( 0.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Url.php ( 12.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Response.php ( 8.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/debug/Html.php ( 4.17 KB )

[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000496s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000814s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000542s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_news` [ RunTime:0.000716s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_news` WHERE `id` = 172 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000568s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_cate` [ RunTime:0.000631s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 99 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000400s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_admin` [ RunTime:0.000627s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_admin` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000415s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000351s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`title`,`url` FROM `tb_news` WHERE `cate_id` = 98 ORDER BY `submit_date` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.004018s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_index_cate` [ RunTime:0.000581s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_index_cate` WHERE `cate_aid` = 1 ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.000405s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=10 and cate_cid=27 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=113 and mode02=-1 and mode03=941 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.200362s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000436s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=11 and cate_cid=38 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=14 and area_cid=91 and mode01=184 and mode02=621 and mode03=1095 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.208159s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000412s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=12 and cate_cid=46 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=325 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1231 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.192138s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 12 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000417s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=13 and cate_cid=49 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=377 and mode02=696 and mode03=1275 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.219606s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 13 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000362s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=14 and cate_cid=54 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=419 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1400 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.246111s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 14 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000393s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_advert` [ RunTime:0.000665s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000404s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.002208s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.002360s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.002425s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001322s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001369s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001346s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3246 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001277s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3248 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001328s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3245 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001252s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001363s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001378s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001273s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001304s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001262s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001369s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001352s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001273s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001255s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001392s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000305s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000299s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000299s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000372s ]

4543万吨电解铝合规产能指标的由来

有色金属报告推荐