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2024年10月铅市场：供应增长、需求旺季尾声与价格走向

2025-01-16 11:46:47 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、供应端表现

（一）原生铅供应

10 月，原生铅冶炼厂的生产态势较为稳定。随着环保限产政策在前期的逐步落实与后期的有序放开，冶炼厂的生产节奏有所调整。部分前期受限产影响的原生铅炼厂恢复了正常生产，整体出货量有所增加。原生铅散单对 SMM1# 铅的升水幅度基本维持在 0 - 50 元 / 吨出厂，这一价格区间反映了市场上原生铅的供应相对充足，炼厂积极出货以获取资金回笼。厂库货物也在持续向社会库存转移，显示出市场流通环节的活跃度提升。

（二）再生铅供应

再生精铅方面，持货商在 10 月的惜售情绪依旧存在，但相较于之前有所缓解。其对 SMM1# 铅的升水幅度在 50 - 100 元 / 吨出厂。由于铅价在 10 月整体波动不大且处于相对低位，再生铅的利润空间被压缩。这使得部分再生炼厂采取压价采购废电瓶的策略，或者适当推迟采购计划，以降低生产成本。废电瓶价格在 10 月虽有波动，但整体下跌幅度有限，不过由于缺乏足够的上涨动力，价格基本维持在相对稳定的水平。

（三）综合供应情况

从开工率来看，原生铅炼厂的开工率呈现稳中有升的态势。SMM 原生铅周度开工率在 10 月逐步提升，月内平均开工率达到了 [X]%，较上月有所增长。这主要得益于部分炼厂的复产以及生产效率的提高。再生铅炼厂方面，SMM 再生铅周度开工率也有所波动，月内平均开工率约为 [X]% 。虽然部分炼厂受到利润挤压和原料采购困难的影响，但随着市场需求的小幅回升，部分炼厂也适当增加了生产。综合来看，10 月铅锭的整体供应量较上月略有增加，但由于再生铅供应的不确定性，供应增长幅度相对有限。

二、需求端分析

（一）下游行业需求

10 月是铅酸蓄电池行业的传统旺季，下游企业为了满足市场需求，积极进行生产备货。SMM 铅酸蓄电池企业综合开工率在 10 月环比大幅增长，达到了 [X]% 。这一较高的开工率表明下游电池企业对铅的需求旺盛，主要用于生产各类铅酸蓄电池，以满足汽车、电动车、储能等领域的市场需求。

（二）需求展望

尽管 10 月需求表现良好，但进入 10 月下旬，随着市场逐渐进入传统淡季的前期阶段，市场对铅的需求增长预期开始放缓。部分下游企业开始谨慎控制库存，避免因市场需求下降而造成库存积压。预计在未来一段时间内，铅的需求将随着市场淡季的来临而逐渐减弱。

三、价格走势回顾

（一）价格波动情况

10 月，铅价整体呈现出先扬后抑的走势。月初，由于下游需求旺盛，铅价在成本支撑和需求拉动下，出现了一定幅度的上涨。沪铅价格一度攀升至 [X] 元 / 吨。然而，随着市场供应的逐渐增加以及市场对未来需求预期的减弱，铅价在月中开始出现回调。到了月末，沪铅价格稳定在 [X] - [X] 元 / 吨的区间内波动。

（二）价格影响因素

成本端方面，铅精矿的加工费（TC）在 10 月基本保持稳定，这使得铅冶炼企业的成本压力相对稳定。但由于铅价的波动，再生铅企业的利润空间受到影响，从而对再生铅的供应产生一定的制约。市场供需关系方面，10 月上旬需求旺盛推动了铅价上涨，但随着供应的增加以及需求预期的减弱，铅价开始回落。此外，宏观经济环境、政策因素以及市场情绪等也对铅价产生了一定的影响。

四、库存情况

（一）社会库存

10 月，SMM 铅社会库存在月初时由于下游需求旺盛，出现了一定程度的下降。但随着供应的逐渐增加，社会库存在月中开始企稳，并在月末略有回升。到 10 月末，SMM 铅社会库存达到了 [X] 万吨，较上月末有所增加。

（二）国际库存

国际市场上，LME 铅库存 10 月整体呈现出波动下降的趋势。月初时，LME 铅库存为 [X] 万吨，到月末时下降至 [X] 万吨。0 - 3 月的贴水幅度在 10 月也有所变化，反映了国际市场上铅的供需关系和市场预期的调整。

五、市场展望

（一）供应方面

预计在未来一段时间内，原生铅炼厂的生产将继续保持相对稳定，但部分炼厂可能会根据市场需求和利润情况进行适当的生产调整。再生铅方面，由于铅价的不确定性以及废电瓶采购成本的影响，再生铅炼厂的生产积极性可能会受到一定的制约。整体来看，铅的供应在未来可能会维持相对稳定的状态，但不排除因市场变化而出现波动的可能性。

（二）需求方面

随着市场逐渐进入淡季，铅酸蓄电池行业对铅的需求将逐渐减弱。预计下游企业的开工率将有所下降，从而导致对铅的采购需求减少。不过，随着新能源汽车和储能行业的不断发展，对铅酸蓄电池的需求仍有一定的增长空间，这可能在一定程度上支撑铅的需求。

（三）价格方面

综合考虑成本支撑、市场供需关系以及宏观经济环境等因素，预计铅价在未来一段时间内将继续在一定区间内波动。如果市场供应增加幅度较大，而需求减弱明显，铅价可能会面临一定的下行压力。但如果成本端出现较大变化，或者市场出现其他突发因素，铅价也可能会出现较大的波动。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001359s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001351s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001400s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001472s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000388s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000389s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000384s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000468s ]