基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铝：面向未来的金属

2025-01-16 11:49:11 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、铝行业产业链

上游采矿及冶炼方面：包括铝土矿开采、氧化铝制取。

中游：电解铝（原铝）冶炼。

铝型材生产加工及消费：铝型材包括铝合金、铝板带、铝箔，或者进一步挤压制成形状及力学性能更佳的工艺零部件等。广泛应用于建筑、轨道交通、汽车、电子、光伏、包装等行业。随着技术进步，铝合金产品相关应用不断延伸拓展。

铝产业链结构示意图

二、铝土矿

全球铝土矿储量丰富，铝土矿具有储量分布集中、产储量不匹配的特征。铝土矿资源主要集中于几内亚、越南、澳大利亚、巴西等国家，2023年合计占全球铝土矿储量资源的65%。从2017年开始，几内亚是全球铝土矿产量增量的主要来源，澳大利亚、巴西、中国等主产区产量明显下降。据中非贸易研究中心2018年发布研究，几内亚现已成为世界主要的铝矾土矿生产国，其特点是埋藏浅、覆土薄，大多可露天开采；矿脉厚，可达12m；其品味高氧化铝含量可以达到40%~60%。

2023年我国铝土矿产量占全球23.3%，但铝土矿和氧化铝储量仅占全球的2%。同时，我国铝土矿资源分布也不均匀。广西的铝土矿资源储量最多，2022年其铝土矿资源储量为2.0亿吨，占全国铝土矿资源储量的30%。其次是贵州和河南，其铝土矿资源储量均占全国的24%。

铝土资源分布情况

三、氧化铝

中长期维度看，铝土矿产量能满足氧化铝生产的需求。根据我们统计，截至2024年7月，全球2024年及远期预计新增氧化铝产能4650万吨。2024年及远期海外氧化铝新建产能合计1990万吨，其中印尼中资拟新/扩建项目合计1200万吨。

截至2024年9月，我国氧化铝建成产能1.04亿吨，运行产能8645万吨。我们预计2024年国内新增投产360万吨，2025年及远期新增产能远超2000万吨。

碳达峰背景下，国内电解铝产能上限空间存在刚性，国内4500万吨电解铝理论氧化铝需求约8550万吨，而当前建成产能已经超过1亿吨，在产产能也超过理论氧化铝需求量，整体产能宽松，且未来仍有投产计划，氧化铝产能不是电解铝生产的瓶颈。

四、电解铝

国内：现有政策下后期国内新增铝冶炼产能弹性有限。截至2024年10月，国内电解铝建成产能4500.7万吨。根据SMM统计，国内2024年及远期投产产能375万吨，净增加产能约为127万吨，87%产能投放在2025年之后。

海外：新增供应较多。未来海外待投放电解铝产能达884万吨。未来全球净增加电解铝产能超过1000万吨，整体电解铝长期供应偏宽松，但当前全球地缘政治环境不稳定，电解铝产能能否顺利落地需要实际跟踪。

全球电解铝产量的变化取决于中国。中国作为全球电解铝生产的重要基地，2022-2023年产量占据了全球总产量的59%。从左图可知，全球原铝产量变化主要来自中国，全球原铝产量趋势与中国电解铝产量趋势一致。

铝产业链供给端核心仍在电解环节，氧化铝与铝土矿不是电解铝产释放的瓶颈，能源状况（电力）是电解铝产能能否顺利释放的关键。

五、下游应用

在众多下游应用领域中，建筑、交通和电力电子是其最主要的终端消费市场。

（1）建筑用铝韧性仍存

铝在建筑地产中主要应用于建筑结构、门窗框架、装饰等，与房地产销售面积息息相关。根据SMM数据，2017年-2023年期间，建筑用铝CAGR仅为0.4%，增长仍存韧性，但占比由2017年的31%收窄至2023年的24%。

2024年，中国房地产市场受到经济下行压力和政策调整的影响，整体呈现下行趋势。房地产销售面积和新开工面积同比下降明显，从而减少了对铝型材的需求。2024年1-9月，商品房销售面积累计值同比下降17.1%。虽然房地产整体低迷，2024年Q1建筑型材生产超预期，城中村改造+保障性住房需求在一定程度上给建筑用铝提供支撑。

建筑用铝消费型占比明显较2017年下滑（%；万吨）

（2）需求增量在制造业和新能源

根据SMM，2024年全年国内原铝总消费量有望同比增长3%，新能源汽车及光伏行业的发展带来的原铝需求增量，在一定程度上弥补了房地产疲软的影响。

轻量化需求助力新能源汽车单车耗铝量增加，自主品牌新能源汽车性价比提升+消费观念转变推动新能源车渗透率提升，二者为汽车用铝增持提供充足动力。根据IAI，2022年新能源汽车单车耗铝量为188kg/辆，高于传统燃油车的154kg/辆，《节能与新能源汽车技术路线图》指出至2025年新能源汽车的单车耗铝量可提升至250kg/辆，而传统燃油车预计增至181kg辆。与此同时，消费者对新能源汽车的认知和接受度不断提高，以及政策的鼓励和支持，新能源汽车的市场增长存在内生动力。量+单耗齐升，新能源汽车用铝需求增长大有空间。

2023年以来，在光伏电站投资经济性及环境效益提升的驱动下，光伏新增装机量大幅增长。截至2024年1-9月，我国光伏累计装机160.9GW，同比增长24.8%。势如破竹的光伏装机刺激了光伏边框和支架的需求，2023年光伏新增装机所需的用铝量同比增长114%，我们预计2024年光伏用铝量同比增速可达7%。

电力电子行业：电解铝终端消费中，电力电子行业的消费占比由2017年的18%增至2023年的22%，增幅明显。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001389s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001346s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001356s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001360s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001459s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001349s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001353s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001350s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001454s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001489s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000377s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000350s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000350s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000450s ]

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