2024年铅市场：供需博弈下的价格起伏与行业新局

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2024年铅市场：供需博弈下的价格起伏与行业新局

2025-01-16 15:06:18 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、供应情况

原生铅供应：2024 年，原生铅冶炼厂受环保政策等因素影响，生产情况波动。年初，部分小型原生铅炼厂因环保限产产量下滑，随着政策灵活性增强及企业整改落实，中型和大型炼厂生产逐渐恢复，供应情况有所改善，但整体产量仍受一定影响。
再生铅供应：再生精铅市场不确定性强，铅价波动导致再生铅企业利润空间压缩，持货商惜售，炼厂控制原料采购量、压价采购废电瓶。废电瓶价格先跌后稳，再生铅生产积极性虽在铅价反弹后有所回升，但供应增长缓慢。
综合供应：从全年来看，原生铅和再生铅周度开工率整体呈下降趋势，导致 2024 年铅锭整体供应量较上一年有所减少。

二、需求情况

下游行业需求：2024 年，铅酸蓄电池行业从年初淡季逐步向旺季过渡，下游企业对市场需求预期增强，部分企业提前备货，铅酸蓄电池企业综合开工率环比增长。不过，因部分企业消化前期库存，整体需求增长幅度有限，需求主要集中在汽车启动电池和部分电动车电池领域，储能领域需求占比较小。
需求展望：随着经济发展和工业化进程推进，铅的市场需求相对稳定，但新能源汽车和新型储能技术的发展，对铅酸蓄电池行业长期需求构成挑战，不过短期内其在汽车启动电池等领域的主导地位仍难以撼动。

三、价格走势

价格波动：2024 年铅价整体呈现先抑后扬再震荡的走势。年初受供应收缩和需求未启动影响，铅价窄幅波动，随后在市场预期转变和下游企业备货推动下，价格触底反弹，之后在成本支撑、供需关系变化以及宏观经济等因素综合影响下，价格维持震荡.
价格影响因素：成本端方面，铅精矿加工费因铅价下跌出现调整，影响冶炼企业成本。市场供需关系方面，年初供应紧张与需求疲软使铅价承压，之后随着需求增加，供需关系改善推动价格上涨，此外，宏观经济数据、政策导向和市场情绪等也对铅价产生重要影响。

四、库存情况

社会库存：2024 年，铅社会库存年初因下游需求疲软累积，之后随着需求回升和供应调整，库存逐渐下降.
国际库存：LME 铅库存年初因矿山发货量增加上升，随后随着全球市场需求恢复和贸易流向调整下降，0-3 月贴水幅度反映了国际市场铅的供需关系和市场预期变化.

五、市场展望

供应方面：未来原生铅炼厂生产将随环保政策稳定和企业调整逐渐恢复正常，部分企业会根据市场灵活调整生产计划。再生铅企业生产积极性虽会提高，但废电瓶采购成本和环保要求将制约其供应增长，铅的供应整体呈缓慢增长态势.
需求方面：铅酸蓄电池行业旺季需求将带动铅的采购需求增长，但需关注新能源等技术发展对铅酸蓄电池行业需求的长期影响.
价格方面：综合考虑成本、供需和宏观经济环境等因素，预计铅价未来将保持震荡上行态势，但市场需求和供应的变化可能导致价格出现较大幅度波动.

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2024年铅市场：供需博弈下的价格起伏与行业新局

一、供应情况

二、需求情况

三、价格走势

四、库存情况

五、市场展望

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