基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年1月铜月报：宏观压力下的供需破局

2025-02-11 10:48:54 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

分享到：

打印

复制链接

2025 年 1 月，铜市场在复杂多变的环境中呈现出独特的供需格局与价格走势。全球经济形势、地缘政治因素以及行业自身的发展动态，都对铜市场产生了深远影响。以下将从供应、需求、进出口、库存等多个维度，对本月铜市场进行全面剖析，并展望未来价格走势与投资策略。

一、供应态势

从海外铜矿来看，虽有供应预期增加的趋势，但受限于新矿开采进度、部分地区地缘政治不稳定以及矿石品位下降等因素，铜精矿的供需关系依旧紧张。同时，粗铜供应出现边际收紧的情况，这主要是由于部分粗铜冶炼企业因设备检修、原料供应不稳定等原因，导致产能受限。

在中国，2024 年 12 月精炼铜产量增幅预估较大，主要得益于前期新投产项目的产能释放以及企业生产效率的提升。然而，进入 2025 年 1 月，产量预估有所回落，这是由于春节假期临近，部分企业安排设备检修、工人返乡休假，导致生产时间减少，进而影响了产量。

二、需求表现

2024 年 11 月，中国精炼铜表观消费增速较高，主要受益于国内基础设施建设的加速推进、新能源产业的蓬勃发展以及制造业的复苏。到了 12 月，表观消费维持高位，家电、汽车等行业对铜的需求持续稳定增长，特别是在新能源汽车领域，随着电池技术的不断进步和市场需求的扩大，对铜的需求量大幅增加。

反观海外市场，制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）呈现分化态势。部分发达国家制造业复苏乏力，需求预期偏弱；而一些新兴经济体，虽然经济增长较快，但由于基础设施建设相对滞后，对铜的需求尚未完全释放。这种分化的需求格局，使得全球铜需求增长面临一定的不确定性。

三、进出口动态

2024 年 12 月，中国精炼铜现货进口窗口维持开启状态。这主要是由于国内外铜价存在一定的价差，进口套利空间显现，吸引了大量进口。同时，保税区溢价反弹，进口清关增多，进一步增加了国内市场的铜供应。这一现象不仅反映了国内市场对铜的旺盛需求，也体现了全球铜市场的资源配置正在发生变化。

四、库存情况

2024 年 12 月，国内和保税区库存环比降幅较大。国内库存下降主要是因为下游企业积极采购，以满足生产需求；而保税区库存的减少，则与进口清关增多、货物快速流向国内市场有关。与之相反，伦敦金属交易所（LME）和纽约商品交易所（COMEX）库存继续增加，这可能是由于海外市场需求相对疲软，导致库存积压。据统计，2024 年全球显性库存增加约 22.8 万吨。进入 2025 年 1 月，受春节假期等季节性因素影响，预估将出现季节性累库现象。

五、市场小结与展望

进入 2025 年 1 月，中国精炼铜产量预估回落，需求也将季节性走弱，供应呈现季节性过剩状态。但由于前期新产能的持续释放以及下游行业对铜的刚性需求，过剩幅度或不及往年同期。海外需求预期偏弱，现货市场整体维持弱势。

在宏观层面，美国新任总统上任前，市场主要基于政策预期进行博弈。在美联储货币政策较为鹰派的背景下，市场情绪预计仍较承压。高利率环境不仅增加了企业的融资成本，也抑制了投资和消费需求，对铜价形成一定的下行压力。国内开年后，资产价格表现偏弱，经济数据的改善有待验证，总体情绪面亦不乐观。虽然政府出台了一系列稳增长政策，但政策效果的显现还需要一定时间。

综合而言，宏观层面仍对铜价形成压力，在淡季背景下，铜价可能进一步下探。然而，市场的支撑或来自表现强于季节性的供需关系。本月沪铜主力运行区间参考：71000 - 74500 元 / 吨；伦铜 3M 运行区间参考：8500 - 9000 美元 / 吨。

对于投资者和市场参与者而言，鉴于当前市场的不确定性，操作建议以观望或反弹短空为主。密切关注宏观经济数据的变化、政策面的调整以及供需关系的动态演变，以便及时调整投资策略，把握市场机遇。

免责声明
北方有色网提供的信息仅供参考，不作为决策建议，客户需自主判断决策，并自行承担相关后果。本报告版权归北方有色网所有，仅限客户自身使用。如需引用，须联系申请授权；未经书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式传播、发布、篡改本报告。北方有色网保留追究任何侵权行为法律责任的权利。

日报

更多+

▪2025年12月18日钴市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日钛市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日稀土市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日锌市场日报[12-18]

▪2025年12月18日电解铝市场日报[12-18]

周报

更多+

▪《锆市场周报》第50周（12.8-12.12）[12-16]

▪《铜市场周报》第50周（12.8-12.12）[12-15]

▪《电解铝周报》第50周（12.8-12.12)[12-15]

▪《铅锌周报》第50周（12.8-12.12)[12-15]

▪《钛市场周报》第50周（12.8-12.12）[12-15]

主编视角

更多+

▪主编视角：稀土元素——半导体行业进步的多重推进器[11-21]

▪主编视角：钼金属——半导体微型化的新引擎[11-21]

▪刚果（金）“掐住”钴咽喉，中国新能源如何破局？[11-20]

▪印尼按下“暂停键”，全球镍产业迎来大变局？[11-20]

▪Empire Metals公司在吉隆坡TZMI大会展示Pitfield钛项目，揭示全球钛产业新焦点[11-14]

热点

更多+

▪投资5亿！武汉6万吨铁锂电池回收项目投产，干法技术领跑行业[12-18]

▪2025光伏行业盈利改善亏损持续收窄[12-18]

▪封关启幕：金融“活水”筑牢海南自贸港开放基石[12-18]

▪印尼拟大幅下调2026年镍矿产量目标[12-18]

▪深圳27人走私管制金属锑锭166余吨出境主犯被判12年[12-18]

基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/public/index.php ( 0.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/start.php ( 0.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/base.php ( 2.60 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Loader.php ( 21.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/composer/autoload_static.php ( 3.95 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/symfony/polyfill-mbstring/bootstrap.php ( 8.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/ezyang/htmlpurifier/library/HTMLPurifier.composer.php ( 0.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/topthink/think-captcha/src/helper.php ( 1.94 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Route.php ( 60.23 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Config.php ( 6.38 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Validate.php ( 41.63 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Error.php ( 3.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/convention.php ( 10.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/App.php ( 21.51 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Request.php ( 49.78 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/config.php ( 10.17 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/database.php ( 1.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Hook.php ( 4.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/tags.php ( 0.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common.php ( 37.25 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Env.php ( 1.21 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/helper.php ( 17.30 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Lang.php ( 7.41 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Log.php ( 6.05 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/lang/zh-cn.php ( 11.81 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/route.php ( 4.08 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/News.php ( 30.40 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/Base.php ( 3.86 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Controller.php ( 6.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/traits/controller/Jump.php ( 4.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/View.php ( 6.77 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/view/driver/Think.php ( 5.64 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Template.php ( 44.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/template/driver/File.php ( 2.24 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/library/RedisUtil.php ( 0.83 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Cache.php ( 6.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/driver/Redis.php ( 5.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/Driver.php ( 5.98 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Para.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Model.php ( 69.14 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Db.php ( 6.67 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/connector/Mysql.php ( 3.89 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Connection.php ( 29.97 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Query.php ( 96.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/builder/Mysql.php ( 4.53 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Builder.php ( 31.55 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Debug.php ( 7.13 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/News.php ( 3.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Cate.php ( 0.59 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Admin.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/NewsConst.php ( 0.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/IndexCate.php ( 0.45 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CommonConst.php ( 0.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/runtime/temp/ae754a079b49dad486f0fa457bc10d5b.php ( 139.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CacheConst.php ( 0.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Url.php ( 12.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Response.php ( 8.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/debug/Html.php ( 4.17 KB )

[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000416s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000631s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000386s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_news` [ RunTime:0.000486s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_news` WHERE `id` = 441 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000372s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_cate` [ RunTime:0.000455s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 99 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000291s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_admin` [ RunTime:0.000465s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_admin` WHERE `id` = 5 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000297s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000299s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`title`,`url` FROM `tb_news` WHERE `cate_id` = 98 ORDER BY `submit_date` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.004068s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_index_cate` [ RunTime:0.000449s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_index_cate` WHERE `cate_aid` = 1 ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.000356s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=10 and cate_cid=27 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=113 and mode02=-1 and mode03=941 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.209593s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000400s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=11 and cate_cid=38 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=14 and area_cid=91 and mode01=184 and mode02=621 and mode03=1095 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.196770s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000511s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=12 and cate_cid=46 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=325 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1231 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.194569s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 12 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000505s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=13 and cate_cid=49 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=377 and mode02=696 and mode03=1275 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.200554s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 13 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000338s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=14 and cate_cid=54 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=419 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1400 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.204838s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 14 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000476s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_advert` [ RunTime:0.000599s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000355s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.001355s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.001403s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001417s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001276s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001378s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001377s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3246 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001277s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3248 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001310s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3245 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001258s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001303s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001434s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001430s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001266s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001375s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001270s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001271s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001337s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001342s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001452s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000303s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000310s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000313s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000363s ]